Reports & Research

Wildfire risk in the United States is no longer confined to the edges of forests or traditionally high-risk zones. New analysis using ZestyAI’s property-level wildfire models shows that millions of homes classified as low or no wildfire risk under federal assessments face elevated wildfire danger when evaluated at the property level.

This analysis was recently featured in Vox, which examined how wildfire behavior is evolving — and why broad, backward-looking risk maps are increasingly misaligned with how fires spread today.

👉 Read the full article on Vox → https://www.vox.com/climate/476932/california-wildfire-los-angeles-risk-ai-housing-climate

Wildfire risk is closer — and more granular — than most maps show

Many homes damaged or destroyed in the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires were still classified as “low risk” under federal wildfire assessments. ZestyAI’s property-level analysis provides a different perspective.

By evaluating individual structures — including vegetation proximity, defensible space, building characteristics, and neighborhood-level fire dynamics — ZestyAI identified more than 3,000 properties worth approximately $2.4 billion in areas impacted by the Palisades and Eaton fires that showed elevated wildfire risk despite being classified as low or no risk under FEMA’s census-level assessments.

Across California, the classification gap is even broader. Approximately 1.2 million properties, representing roughly $940 billion in residential property value, are designated as low or no wildfire risk under federal maps, despite AI-driven property-level models indicating elevated wildfire danger.

Why census-level wildfire maps fall short

Wildfires do not spread evenly across census tracts or counties. Ember-driven ignition, structure-to-structure spread, wind conditions, and localized vegetation patterns create uneven outcomes, where one home survives and the next is destroyed.

Federal wildfire assessments are designed to provide a baseline view of community-level risk. FEMA has noted that its National Risk Index is not intended to serve as a property-specific risk assessment. When risk is evaluated at the individual property level, meaningful differences emerge that aggregated maps are not designed to capture.

What more granular wildfire risk intelligence enables

More detailed wildfire risk data can support:

• Targeted mitigation efforts at the property and neighborhood level
• More informed rebuilding and land-use decisions
• Clearer, more defensible underwriting and portfolio strategies
• Improved dialogue between insurers, regulators, and communities

A shift in how wildfire risk is understood

Wildfire risk is evolving faster than the systems built to measure it. Homes are no longer just adjacent to wildfire hazards; they increasingly influence how fires ignite, spread, and intensify, even in dense urban environments.

Property-level risk intelligence does not remove hard decisions. But without it, those decisions are made using an incomplete picture of where wildfire risk truly exists.

Read the full Vox article here.

In property insurance, roof age is one of the most critical factors in assessing risk. Yet too often, carriers rely on self-reported or agent-supplied data that is incomplete or inaccurate.

ZestyAI’s recent analysis of 500,000+ properties revealed widespread discrepancies in reported roof age. The result? Mispriced policies, unexpected losses, and operational inefficiencies that impact the bottom line.

As climate volatility grows and reinsurance pressure intensifies, overlooking the true condition and age of a home’s largest, most exposed surface is a risk no carrier can afford.

What’s Inside

• Uncover the biggest myths and blind spots in roof age records.
• Understand why traditional data sources, like claims systems and permits, fall short in providing accurate roof age.
• Learn how a multi-source verification strategy, combining aerial imagery, permits, tax records, and AI, offers a blueprint for improvement and 97% national coverage.
• Explore why roof age is a predictor of losses across multiple perils, not just wind and hail.
• Discover the one-two punch of verified roof age and real-time condition insights, delivering a complete view of risk, even for young roofs with hidden problems.
• Align your roof age data with growing regulatory expectations, particularly in states like Florida.

Access the Guide.

New research from ZestyAI reveals that 62% of U.S. homeowners are deferring critical home maintenance, adding up to $317 billion in potential claims exposure for insurers.

These findings come as Severe Convective Storms (SCS) caused an estimated $58 billion in insured losses in 2024, surpassing hurricane-related losses and marking the second-costliest SCS year on record.

Tornadoes, hail, and wind events now account for over 60% of all U.S. catastrophe claims, and research from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) shows that roof damage accounts for up to 90% of residential catastrophe losses.

Key Findings from ZestyAI’s Homeowner Survey

According to ZestyAI’s nationally representative survey, 62% of homeowners have delayed essential repairs due to budget constraints, representing nearly 59 million U.S. homes with unaddressed vulnerabilities. Forty percent said they would rely on an insurance claim to cover major repairs like roof replacement, adding up to an estimated $317 billion in potential exposure for carriers.

Alarmingly, 63% of homeowners who weren’t living in their home at the time of the last roof replacement don’t know how old their roof is, making it even harder to detect aging systems before they fail. Meanwhile, 12% admitted they would delay repairs indefinitely, further increasing their risk of property damage.

Severe Convective Storms: The Growing Catastrophe Risk

This blind spot compounds known risks: prior ZestyAI analysis has identified over 12.6 million U.S. properties at high risk for hail-related roof damage, representing $189.5 billion in potential roof replacement costs.

“Deferred maintenance has long been a known risk factor, but today the stakes are higher than ever,” said Kumar Dhuvur, Co-Founder and Chief Product Officer of ZestyAI. "With claim severity rising and storm losses compounding, insurers need more than hazard maps to navigate this landscape."

"Property-level insights allow carriers to proactively address known vulnerabilities, improve underwriting precision, and work with homeowners to reduce losses before they happen.”

ZestyAI’s findings support a growing push toward data-driven, preventative underwriting strategies, especially as carriers face rising claim severity and pressure to improve combined ratios across storm-prone states.

With insured losses projected to exceed $30 billion, the recent Los Angeles wildfires rank among the costliest in U.S. history—reshaping how insurers think about risk, resilience, and readiness.

Watch the Full Webinar → LA Fires in Focus: What Insurers Need to Know

In this on-demand webinar, experts from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), the Western Fire Chiefs Association, Cal Poly’s WUI Fire Institute, and ZestyAI unpack what really happened—from frontline response to lab-based research and model performance—and share critical strategies insurers can use to prepare for what’s next.

Watch this session if you’re a Product Managers, Underwriters, Actuaries, and Risk & Innovation leaders looking to make informed decisions in an increasingly volatile wildfire landscape.

What You’ll Learn

• Key takeaways from the Los Angeles wildfires
• Research on structure-to-structure fire spread and resilience factors
• How wildfire risk models performed—what we got right (and wrong)
• Practical strategies to reduce exposure and strengthen resilience

Meet the Experts

• Anne Cope, Chief Engineer, IBHS
• Bob Roper, CEO, Western Fire Chiefs Association
• Frank Frievalt, Director, WUI Fire Institute at Cal Poly
• Kumar Duhvur, Co-Founder & CPO, ZestyAI

With insured losses projected to exceed $30 billion, the recent Los Angeles wildfires rank among the costliest in U.S. history—reshaping how insurers think about risk, resilience, and readiness.

Watch the Full Webinar → LA Fires in Focus: What Insurers Need to Know

In this on-demand webinar, experts from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), the Western Fire Chiefs Association, Cal Poly’s WUI Fire Institute, and ZestyAI unpack what really happened—from frontline response to lab-based research and model performance—and share critical strategies insurers can use to prepare for what’s next.

Watch this session if you’re a Product Managers, Underwriters, Actuaries, and Risk & Innovation leaders looking to make informed decisions in an increasingly volatile wildfire landscape.

What You’ll Learn

• Key takeaways from the Los Angeles wildfires
• Research on structure-to-structure fire spread and resilience factors
• How wildfire risk models performed—what we got right (and wrong)
• Practical strategies to reduce exposure and strengthen resilience

Meet the Experts

• Anne Cope, Chief Engineer, IBHS
• Bob Roper, CEO, Western Fire Chiefs Association
• Frank Frievalt, Director, WUI Fire Institute at Cal Poly
• Kumar Duhvur, Co-Founder & CPO, ZestyAI

Wildfire Risk Is Rising Nationwide‍

Wildfire seasons are getting longer, more destructive, and harder to predict—and they’re no longer just a Western U.S. concern. From the Southeast to the Midwest, wildfire risk is emerging in places many insurers haven’t traditionally watched.

What the Latest Data Reveals About Wildfire Exposure

Drawing from the latest national datasets and insights from ZestyAI’s Z-FIRE™ model, this visual guide to wildfire risk in the U.S. shows:

• New wildfire hotspots: Discover where risk is rising fastest.
• Mitigation gaps: Learn how a lack of defensible space is putting thousands of homes in danger across the country.
• Top risk drivers: See how features like overhanging trees and wooden roofs are fueling destruction in high-risk areas.

Download Free Infographic

BONUS: You’ll also get access to our latest online event with IBHS and Western Fire Chiefs Association, The LA Fires in Focus: What Worked, What Didn’t, What’s Next for Insurers.

With insured losses projected to exceed $30 billion, the recent Los Angeles wildfires rank among the costliest in U.S. history—reshaping how insurers think about risk, resilience, and readiness.

Watch the Full Webinar → LA Fires in Focus: What Insurers Need to Know

In this on-demand webinar, experts from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), the Western Fire Chiefs Association, Cal Poly’s WUI Fire Institute, and ZestyAI unpack what really happened—from frontline response to lab-based research and model performance—and share critical strategies insurers can use to prepare for what’s next.

Watch this session if you’re a Product Managers, Underwriters, Actuaries, and Risk & Innovation leaders looking to make informed decisions in an increasingly volatile wildfire landscape.

What You’ll Learn

• Key takeaways from the Los Angeles wildfires
• Research on structure-to-structure fire spread and resilience factors
• How wildfire risk models performed—what we got right (and wrong)
• Practical strategies to reduce exposure and strengthen resilience

Meet the Experts

• Anne Cope, Chief Engineer, IBHS
• Bob Roper, CEO, Western Fire Chiefs Association
• Frank Frievalt, Director, WUI Fire Institute at Cal Poly
• Kumar Duhvur, Co-Founder & CPO, ZestyAI

With insured losses projected to exceed $30 billion, the recent Los Angeles wildfires rank among the costliest in U.S. history—reshaping how insurers think about risk, resilience, and readiness.

Watch the Full Webinar → LA Fires in Focus: What Insurers Need to Know

In this on-demand webinar, experts from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), the Western Fire Chiefs Association, Cal Poly’s WUI Fire Institute, and ZestyAI unpack what really happened—from frontline response to lab-based research and model performance—and share critical strategies insurers can use to prepare for what’s next.

Watch this session if you’re a Product Managers, Underwriters, Actuaries, and Risk & Innovation leaders looking to make informed decisions in an increasingly volatile wildfire landscape.

What You’ll Learn

• Key takeaways from the Los Angeles wildfires
• Research on structure-to-structure fire spread and resilience factors
• How wildfire risk models performed—what we got right (and wrong)
• Practical strategies to reduce exposure and strengthen resilience

Meet the Experts

• Anne Cope, Chief Engineer, IBHS
• Bob Roper, CEO, Western Fire Chiefs Association
• Frank Frievalt, Director, WUI Fire Institute at Cal Poly
• Kumar Duhvur, Co-Founder & CPO, ZestyAI

ZestyAI today announced that the Connecticut Insurance Department (CID) has formally approved its Roof Quality solution for use in residential property underwriting.

CID conducted a comprehensive third-party actuarial review of ZestyAI’s model, evaluating methodology, data integrity, and regulatory compliance against its rigorous standards.

What CID’s Approval Means for Carriers

Part of Z-PROPERTY™ , the Roof Quality model enables insurers to assess and price roof risk with unmatched accuracy.

By combining 3D property analysis, high-resolution aerial imagery, and AI trained on extensive real-world data, the platform replaces subjective or incomplete assessments with objective, property-specific intelligence.

The model classifies roofs into five standardized condition levels, helping insurers assess property risk with greater precision. It distinguishes between surface-level wear and structural issues, flagging meaningful signs of deterioration such as missing shingles, tarps, or water pooling.

Bryan Rehor, Director of Regulatory Affairs at ZestyAI, said:

“Roof condition is one of the strongest predictors of loss, yet historically one of the hardest to assess without costly inspections. This approval affirms the accuracy, fairness, and transparency of our approach and reflects our broader commitment to aligning innovation with consumer protection.”

How ZestyAI’s Roof Quality Model Improves Risk Assessment

ZestyAI maintains active engagement with the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) and state-level departments to ensure its models meet evolving standards for fairness, transparency, and consumer protection.

By proactively filing through in-house Rating and Advisory Organizations, ZestyAI ensures its models meet the strictest regulatory standards before reaching the market. 

ZestyAI’s models are trusted by regulators and insurers to assess risk in the nation’s most climate-exposed regions with Z-FIRE, ZestyAI’s wildfire risk model, approved by regulators in all western states. Its Severe Convective Storm suite is approved in 16 states across the Midwest, Great Plains, and South.

ZestyAI today announced a new partnership with Farmers and Mechanics Mutual Insurance Company of West Virginia (FMIWV) to strengthen underwriting accuracy and improve risk-based pricing.

Why Accurate Roof Data Matters More Than Ever

Roof claims are the leading driver of insurance losses, yet many carriers still depend on self-reported data, which can be unreliable, or physical inspections, which are costly and hard to scale. Recent research shows that 15% of roofs are at least eight years older than reported, highlighting the need for more reliable, data-driven alternatives.

To address long-standing challenges in accessing reliable property insights, FMIWV selected Z-PROPERTY™.

Why FMIWV Chose Z-PROPERTY

Dan Otto, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at FMIWV, said:

"After evaluating several options in recent years, we chose ZestyAI based on their strong coverage and ease of implementation. Getting started using the technology was easy. We’re particularly focused on using their property insights to provide additional underwriting information for new business and renewals.”

ZestyAI’s advanced insights help FMIWV:

• Identify high-risk properties early to prioritize mitigation and prevent losses
• Enhance risk selection and pricing precision with objective, property-level data
• Reduce inspection costs and turnaround time by minimizing the need for on-site assessments
• Streamline straight-through processing for low-risk properties to improve efficiency and speed to bind
• Reduce premium leakage by aligning pricing with actual exposure

“FMIWV is showing how regional carriers can lead with data-driven underwriting that improves operations and elevates the customer experience,” said Attila Toth, Founder and CEO of ZestyAI.

“By grounding decisions in reliable, property-level data, they’re improving efficiency, reducing risk, and raising the bar for underwriting and rating precision.”

Wildfire Risk Is Rising Nationwide‍

Wildfire seasons are getting longer, more destructive, and harder to predict—and they’re no longer just a Western U.S. concern. From the Southeast to the Midwest, wildfire risk is emerging in places many insurers haven’t traditionally watched.

What the Latest Data Reveals About Wildfire Exposure

Drawing from the latest national datasets and insights from ZestyAI’s Z-FIRE™ model, this visual guide to wildfire risk in the U.S. shows:

• New wildfire hotspots: Discover where risk is rising fastest.
• Mitigation gaps: Learn how a lack of defensible space is putting thousands of homes in danger across the country.
• Top risk drivers: See how features like overhanging trees and wooden roofs are fueling destruction in high-risk areas.

Download Free Infographic

BONUS: You’ll also get access to our latest online event with IBHS and Western Fire Chiefs Association, The LA Fires in Focus: What Worked, What Didn’t, What’s Next for Insurers.

At ZestyAI, we’re continually enhancing our platform to help insurers better understand property risk, strengthen underwriting precision, and streamline operations. Over the last few months, our team has launched a series of updates that make our AI-powered solutions even more powerful and accessible.

From improvements in roof geometry and manufactured home modeling to expanded wildfire data on home hardening and structural vulnerability, plus faster APIs and faster APIs, these updates reflect our deep commitment to product excellence and customer success.

Smarter Risk Modeling for Manufactured Homes

Updated Manufactured Home Model in Z-PROPERTY

We’ve released an upgraded model for manufactured homes within Z-PROPERTY, trained on a broader set of imagery sources to improve data coverage and model accuracy.

This new version reduces the false positive rate, giving carriers greater confidence when evaluating mobile home risk—a critical upgrade for lines of business that rely on nuanced property insights.

Better Roof Geometry Analysis with the Roof Facet Model

Enhanced Accuracy and Speed in Roof Modeling

As part of our Digital Roof product, the Roof Facet model has been refined to deliver sharper roof geometry insights with faster processing times. This enhancement is especially valuable for customers scoring large portfolios, improving both speed and data quality.

Expanded Wildfire Risk Data Coverage

Compliance Pre-Fill Now Covers 99%+ of Wildfire Properties

We’ve expanded our Compliance Pre-Fill solution to support all wildfire-prone states, with property-level coverage now exceeding 99%. New on-demand access to critical wildfire mitigation features—including enclosed eaves, six-inch vertical clearance for siding, and noncombustible fencing—allows underwriters and compliance teams to make more accurate decisions with current data and zero added latency.

3D That Tells the Whole Story

Access to Richer 3D and Historical Imagery

ZestyAI now provides access to a broader and deeper catalog of high-resolution and historical imagery, powered by best-in-class sources of imagery. These enhancements improve underwriting workflows and allow insurers to “time travel” and evaluate how a property’s condition has changed over time. 

This capability is especially valuable in regulatory environments that require proof of property degradation before policy changes are made. Historical imagery also gives underwriters a fuller view of prior conditions, providing context for past underwriting decisions.

Performance Gains Across All APIs

Reduced Latency and Improved API Response Times

We’ve optimized our APIs to significantly reduce latency, improving the speed and reliability of data delivery across all ZestyAI products. Whether batch scoring, running real-time underwriting, or executing renewal workflows, you’ll experience faster performance and greater efficiency—saving valuable time across your organization.

A New and Improved Upload Experience in Z-PORTFOLIO

Redesigned Upload Page for Streamlined Workflow

We’ve redesigned the Z-PORTFOLIO upload experience to make portfolio submissions more intuitive and efficient. Instructions and templates are now centralized in one place, and users can specify the purpose of the upload—such as renewal or dislocation analysis—to unlock deeper insights into usage patterns. This update enhances the self-service experience and helps customers extract maximum value from portfolio analyses.

Driving Continuous Innovation in Insurance Risk Intelligence

These product updates are more than just technical enhancements; they’re part of a larger mission to transform property risk assessment through AI. By improving model precision, reducing friction in workflows, and delivering richer, more current data, we’re helping insurers stay ahead of emerging risks and changing market demands.

If you’d like to learn more about any of these updates or request a demo, reach out to your Customer Success Manager or contact us below.