Reports & Research

A Data-Driven Conversation about the US West’s Megadrought

Current climate conditions in the West reveal that 2021 may have a higher than normal risk for wildfire losses. While much of this report focuses on California, historically the worst victim of wildfire in the US, the entire western US is of concern in 2021. In particular, the expansion of deep drought into Colorado is of major concern.

Drought is a leading factor in seasonal wildfire risk. With drought extending through every western state this spring, insurers should consider looking deeply into how they are addressing this growing peril. According to AON, last year’s wildfires in the US West cost insurers over $8 billion.

We've released a complete detailing the devastating potential for 2021's wildfire season. The full report is available here.

Research across more than 71,000 properties involved in wildfires draws significant links between fuel management and property survival.

Read Full Study 

Oakland,Calif., April 8, 2021: Zesty^AI, a leader in climate risk analytics powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) today released new research on how fuel management impacts destruction rates from wildfires. They found property owners who clear vegetation from the perimeter of their home or building can nearly double their structure's likelihood of surviving a wildfire.

Zesty^AI, in conjunction with, IBHS studied more than 71,000 properties involved in wildfires between 2016 and 2019 to assess the relationship between vegetation, buildings, and property vulnerability. To do this, Zesty^AI leveraged a combination of computer vision and AI to analyze high resolution satellite and aerial imagery of the properties that fell within the wildfire perimeter, which allowed them to determine what effects a property's physical environment had on its likelihood of survival. They found buildings with a high amount of vegetation within 5 feet of the structure were destroyed in a wildfire 78 percent of the time -- a rate nearly twice as high as those with small amounts of perimeter vegetation. This pattern held true as Zesty^AI analyzed the other defensible zones, ranging from 30 to 100 feet around the property.

"It's common sense that increased vegetation increases wildfire risk, but this study shows just how powerful individual action can be in safeguarding structures. Mitigation actions that can cut risk nearly in half are statistically meaningful to anyone with a stake in this peril," said Attila Toth, CEO of Zesty^AI. "These findings also underscore how wildfire research at IBHS and artificial intelligence at Zesty^AI translates to real-world impact at the intersection of homeowners, community leaders, regulators, and insurance carriers. This type of collective action will help protect our communities from the devastating impact of wildfire, which unfortunately has continued to increase over the last decade."

The study also supported and confirmed takeaways from IBHS's Suburban Wildfire Adaptation Roadmaps released last year, which go beyond the home ignition zone to detail additional actions needed across eight aspects of a home to address a home's wildfire vulnerability. Zesty^AI's new research found that having other structures in close proximity to a property increases its wildfire risk, particularly for properties in areas with moderate to high vegetation coverage. Buildings in these areas that had another structure within 30 to 100 feet from the property were destroyed in a wildfire 60 percent of the time, compared to a 31 percent destruction rate for homes without another structure in close proximity.

"This research further demonstrates to homeowners, community leaders, and policy makers just how impactful taking the mitigation actions laid out in the Suburban Wildfire Adaptation Roadmaps can be in protecting homes from wildfire ignition," said Roy E. Wright, President & Chief Executive Officer at IBHS. "Quantifying the effect of mitigating fuel density risk, one of the critical actions identified in the Roadmaps, is a first piece in the larger puzzle of what groups of mitigation actions most improve the chance of home survival and by what level."

Zesty^AI is uniquely equipped to support this type of research because of the proprietary wildfire property loss database it developed for Z-FIRE™, its AI model that generates property-specific predictive risk scores. Z-FIRE™ has been trained on more than 1,200 wildfire events across several decades and accounts for the property-level factors that contribute to wildfire risk, including defensible space, building material, and roof pitch, which legacy models fail to consider.

Wright added, "While it is not possible to eliminate wildfire risk we are not powerless against it. We must take a pragmatic approach to mitigate risk at all levels and ultimately reduce property damage through data and science. Through collaborations with modelling organizations like Zesty^AI, advanced technology like computer vision and AI help us better understand the impact of these actions at a larger scale. It is encouraging to see emerging progress in just the first months of 2021."

For additional insights you can read the full research paper, ‘Wildfire Fuel Management and Risk Mitigation - Where to Start?' here. For more information on Zesty^AI please visit www.zesty.ai, and for more information on IBHS please visit www.ibhs.org.

About Zesty^AI (www.zesty.ai): Increasingly frequent natural disasters, such as wildfires, floods and hurricanes devastated communities and drove $2.2 Trillion in economic losses over the past decade. Zesty^AI uses 200Bn data points, including aerial imagery, and artificial intelligence to assess the impact of climate change one building at a time. Zesty^AI has partnered with leading insurance companies and property owners helping them protect homes, businesses and support thriving communities. Zesty^AI was named Top 100 Most Innovative AI Company in the world by CB Insights in 2020, and Gartner Cool Vendor in Insurance by Gartner Research in 2019. For more information visit: https://www.zesty.ai/

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About the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS)

The IBHS mission is to conduct objective, scientific research to identify and promote effective actions that strengthen homes, businesses and communities against natural disasters and other causes of loss. Learn more about IBHS at DisasterSafety.org.

As of September 18th, between $5.9Bn and $9.8Bn in losses have occurred this year alone.

The Zest
Zesty^AI has been keeping a close eye on the wildfires burning in the Western United States. Whether by evacuation or smoke, most of our employees have felt the impact firsthand.
Utilizing our vast wildfire data and artificial intelligence resources, we have estimated that as of September 18th, between $5.9Bn and $9.8Bn in losses have occurred this year alone.

What has made 2020 unique?
Two key aspects have made the 2020 Wildfire Season exceptional: the number of acres burned and the timing of the fires.

2018, which previously held the California record for acres burned at 1,975,086 has been eclipsed with months left in the seasons. More than 3.3 million acres have already been charred by wildfire this year in California alone, and more than 5 million in the Western US.

Fire season tends to start in September and peak in November. In August, a large scale lightning event occurred, triggering many of the California wildfires. Oregon, which typically has a shorter wildfire season has also seen early and widespread wildfires.

Analysis Methodology
Using Zesty^AI’s comprehensive historical wildfire loss data, up-to-date wildfire perimeter locations for the 2020 season, residential and commercial property information, and fueled by Zesty^AI’s AI-driven wildfire damage risk scores, the expected destruction and cost of the 2020 wildfire season so far was calculated for California, Oregon, and Washington.

To estimate the destruction and damages, Zesty^AI identified every structure involved in the 2020 wildfire perimeters and their associated wildfire vulnerabilities. Using the historical relationship between the risk profile of the structure, asset value, and economic loss, Zesty^AI was able to estimate the full economic loss of those events (including non-insured assets such as uninsured property, and non-insured economic cost). Actual information from CalFire on CZU and LNU incident was used to validate the methodology.

From our extensive historical loss data, a relationship between structural damage expected and the cost of wildfire events was developed based on local property and loss information and expanded to include additional considerations such as smoke damage, displacement costs, and construction.

The 5 Most Destructive Fires So Far
Our estimates place the Claremont-Bear (North Complex) at the top of the list of most destructive in terms of number of properties lost. Four of these five wildfires occurred in California with the Alameda Drive fire occurring in Oregon.

The 5 Most Expensive Fires So Far
While the Claremont-Bear (North Complex) fire is estimated to have destroyed the most properties, the CZU Lightning Complex fire is currently estimated to be the most costly at up to $2.6B. That makes it responsible for ~27% of all total economic losses from fires in the 2020 season so far. 

Putting Numbers on Destruction
By Zesty^AI estimates, between $5.9Bn and $9.8Bn of economic losses have occurred in California, Oregon, and Washington so far this year. California, which also leads in acres burned (5M+) makes up the lion’s share at up to $7.9B.

It’s important to state that the fire season is not yet over. In much of the Western US, it could be just beginning. With a number of fires still active and the potential for more to start, these numbers are almost certain to rise between now and the end of the year.

Looking Forward
Multiple estimates place the 2018 wildfire season at around $15Bn in total losses. While exceptional in terms of total acres burned, the 2020 wildfire season has not yet reached that level of economic loss. Without any doubt, this will be one of the costliest years on record, and with months left in the season, the potential exists for this year to surpass 2018 if it continues at its current pace.

Zesty^AI will continue to monitor this fire season. As in years past, new data continues to refine our models and analyses. Insurance professionals and media who would like more information about this analysis or about how artificial intelligence can help insurers protect themselves and their customers from wildfire should contact us.

With insured losses projected to exceed $30 billion, the recent Los Angeles wildfires rank among the costliest in U.S. history—reshaping how insurers think about risk, resilience, and readiness.

Watch the Full Webinar → LA Fires in Focus: What Insurers Need to Know

In this on-demand webinar, experts from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), the Western Fire Chiefs Association, Cal Poly’s WUI Fire Institute, and ZestyAI unpack what really happened—from frontline response to lab-based research and model performance—and share critical strategies insurers can use to prepare for what’s next.

Watch this session if you’re a Product Managers, Underwriters, Actuaries, and Risk & Innovation leaders looking to make informed decisions in an increasingly volatile wildfire landscape.

What You’ll Learn

• Key takeaways from the Los Angeles wildfires
• Research on structure-to-structure fire spread and resilience factors
• How wildfire risk models performed—what we got right (and wrong)
• Practical strategies to reduce exposure and strengthen resilience

Meet the Experts

• Anne Cope, Chief Engineer, IBHS
• Bob Roper, CEO, Western Fire Chiefs Association
• Frank Frievalt, Director, WUI Fire Institute at Cal Poly
• Kumar Duhvur, Co-Founder & CPO, ZestyAI

With insured losses projected to exceed $30 billion, the recent Los Angeles wildfires rank among the costliest in U.S. history—reshaping how insurers think about risk, resilience, and readiness.

Watch the Full Webinar → LA Fires in Focus: What Insurers Need to Know

In this on-demand webinar, experts from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), the Western Fire Chiefs Association, Cal Poly’s WUI Fire Institute, and ZestyAI unpack what really happened—from frontline response to lab-based research and model performance—and share critical strategies insurers can use to prepare for what’s next.

Watch this session if you’re a Product Managers, Underwriters, Actuaries, and Risk & Innovation leaders looking to make informed decisions in an increasingly volatile wildfire landscape.

What You’ll Learn

• Key takeaways from the Los Angeles wildfires
• Research on structure-to-structure fire spread and resilience factors
• How wildfire risk models performed—what we got right (and wrong)
• Practical strategies to reduce exposure and strengthen resilience

Meet the Experts

• Anne Cope, Chief Engineer, IBHS
• Bob Roper, CEO, Western Fire Chiefs Association
• Frank Frievalt, Director, WUI Fire Institute at Cal Poly
• Kumar Duhvur, Co-Founder & CPO, ZestyAI

ZestyAI today announced that the Connecticut Insurance Department (CID) has formally approved its Roof Quality solution for use in residential property underwriting.

CID conducted a comprehensive third-party actuarial review of ZestyAI’s model, evaluating methodology, data integrity, and regulatory compliance against its rigorous standards.

What CID’s Approval Means for Carriers

Part of Z-PROPERTY™ , the Roof Quality model enables insurers to assess and price roof risk with unmatched accuracy.

By combining 3D property analysis, high-resolution aerial imagery, and AI trained on extensive real-world data, the platform replaces subjective or incomplete assessments with objective, property-specific intelligence.

The model classifies roofs into five standardized condition levels, helping insurers assess property risk with greater precision. It distinguishes between surface-level wear and structural issues, flagging meaningful signs of deterioration such as missing shingles, tarps, or water pooling.

Bryan Rehor, Director of Regulatory Affairs at ZestyAI, said:

“Roof condition is one of the strongest predictors of loss, yet historically one of the hardest to assess without costly inspections. This approval affirms the accuracy, fairness, and transparency of our approach and reflects our broader commitment to aligning innovation with consumer protection.”

How ZestyAI’s Roof Quality Model Improves Risk Assessment

ZestyAI maintains active engagement with the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) and state-level departments to ensure its models meet evolving standards for fairness, transparency, and consumer protection.

By proactively filing through in-house Rating and Advisory Organizations, ZestyAI ensures its models meet the strictest regulatory standards before reaching the market. 

ZestyAI’s models are trusted by regulators and insurers to assess risk in the nation’s most climate-exposed regions with Z-FIRE, ZestyAI’s wildfire risk model, approved by regulators in all western states. Its Severe Convective Storm suite is approved in 16 states across the Midwest, Great Plains, and South.

ZestyAI today announced a new partnership with Farmers and Mechanics Mutual Insurance Company of West Virginia (FMIWV) to strengthen underwriting accuracy and improve risk-based pricing.

Why Accurate Roof Data Matters More Than Ever

Roof claims are the leading driver of insurance losses, yet many carriers still depend on self-reported data, which can be unreliable, or physical inspections, which are costly and hard to scale. Recent research shows that 15% of roofs are at least eight years older than reported, highlighting the need for more reliable, data-driven alternatives.

To address long-standing challenges in accessing reliable property insights, FMIWV selected Z-PROPERTY™.

Why FMIWV Chose Z-PROPERTY

Dan Otto, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at FMIWV, said:

"After evaluating several options in recent years, we chose ZestyAI based on their strong coverage and ease of implementation. Getting started using the technology was easy. We’re particularly focused on using their property insights to provide additional underwriting information for new business and renewals.”

ZestyAI’s advanced insights help FMIWV:

• Identify high-risk properties early to prioritize mitigation and prevent losses
• Enhance risk selection and pricing precision with objective, property-level data
• Reduce inspection costs and turnaround time by minimizing the need for on-site assessments
• Streamline straight-through processing for low-risk properties to improve efficiency and speed to bind
• Reduce premium leakage by aligning pricing with actual exposure

“FMIWV is showing how regional carriers can lead with data-driven underwriting that improves operations and elevates the customer experience,” said Attila Toth, Founder and CEO of ZestyAI.

“By grounding decisions in reliable, property-level data, they’re improving efficiency, reducing risk, and raising the bar for underwriting and rating precision.”

Wildfire Risk Is Rising Nationwide‍

Wildfire seasons are getting longer, more destructive, and harder to predict—and they’re no longer just a Western U.S. concern. From the Southeast to the Midwest, wildfire risk is emerging in places many insurers haven’t traditionally watched.

What the Latest Data Reveals About Wildfire Exposure

Drawing from the latest national datasets and insights from ZestyAI’s Z-FIRE™ model, this visual guide to wildfire risk in the U.S. shows:

• New wildfire hotspots: Discover where risk is rising fastest.
• Mitigation gaps: Learn how a lack of defensible space is putting thousands of homes in danger across the country.
• Top risk drivers: See how features like overhanging trees and wooden roofs are fueling destruction in high-risk areas.

Download Free Infographic

BONUS: You’ll also get access to our latest online event with IBHS and Western Fire Chiefs Association, The LA Fires in Focus: What Worked, What Didn’t, What’s Next for Insurers.

At ZestyAI, we’re continually enhancing our platform to help insurers better understand property risk, strengthen underwriting precision, and streamline operations. Over the last few months, our team has launched a series of updates that make our AI-powered solutions even more powerful and accessible.

From improvements in roof geometry and manufactured home modeling to expanded wildfire data on home hardening and structural vulnerability, plus faster APIs and faster APIs, these updates reflect our deep commitment to product excellence and customer success.

Smarter Risk Modeling for Manufactured Homes

Updated Manufactured Home Model in Z-PROPERTY

We’ve released an upgraded model for manufactured homes within Z-PROPERTY, trained on a broader set of imagery sources to improve data coverage and model accuracy.

This new version reduces the false positive rate, giving carriers greater confidence when evaluating mobile home risk—a critical upgrade for lines of business that rely on nuanced property insights.

Better Roof Geometry Analysis with the Roof Facet Model

Enhanced Accuracy and Speed in Roof Modeling

As part of our Digital Roof product, the Roof Facet model has been refined to deliver sharper roof geometry insights with faster processing times. This enhancement is especially valuable for customers scoring large portfolios, improving both speed and data quality.

Expanded Wildfire Risk Data Coverage

Compliance Pre-Fill Now Covers 99%+ of Wildfire Properties

We’ve expanded our Compliance Pre-Fill solution to support all wildfire-prone states, with property-level coverage now exceeding 99%. New on-demand access to critical wildfire mitigation features—including enclosed eaves, six-inch vertical clearance for siding, and noncombustible fencing—allows underwriters and compliance teams to make more accurate decisions with current data and zero added latency.

3D That Tells the Whole Story

Access to Richer 3D and Historical Imagery

ZestyAI now provides access to a broader and deeper catalog of high-resolution and historical imagery, powered by best-in-class sources of imagery. These enhancements improve underwriting workflows and allow insurers to “time travel” and evaluate how a property’s condition has changed over time. 

This capability is especially valuable in regulatory environments that require proof of property degradation before policy changes are made. Historical imagery also gives underwriters a fuller view of prior conditions, providing context for past underwriting decisions.

Performance Gains Across All APIs

Reduced Latency and Improved API Response Times

We’ve optimized our APIs to significantly reduce latency, improving the speed and reliability of data delivery across all ZestyAI products. Whether batch scoring, running real-time underwriting, or executing renewal workflows, you’ll experience faster performance and greater efficiency—saving valuable time across your organization.

A New and Improved Upload Experience in Z-PORTFOLIO

Redesigned Upload Page for Streamlined Workflow

We’ve redesigned the Z-PORTFOLIO upload experience to make portfolio submissions more intuitive and efficient. Instructions and templates are now centralized in one place, and users can specify the purpose of the upload—such as renewal or dislocation analysis—to unlock deeper insights into usage patterns. This update enhances the self-service experience and helps customers extract maximum value from portfolio analyses.

Driving Continuous Innovation in Insurance Risk Intelligence

These product updates are more than just technical enhancements; they’re part of a larger mission to transform property risk assessment through AI. By improving model precision, reducing friction in workflows, and delivering richer, more current data, we’re helping insurers stay ahead of emerging risks and changing market demands.

If you’d like to learn more about any of these updates or request a demo, reach out to your Customer Success Manager or contact us below.