Reports & Research

Download Report

Today, ZestyAI released its 2022 Wildfire Season Overview. Each year, ZestyAI prepares a comprehensive overview to help guide insurers based on recent wildfire events, persistent drought conditions, and advancements in artificial intelligence for managing wildfire risk.

If it seems like wildfires are burning at all times of the year, it's not just you. Very destructive events, like last December's Marshall Fire, are occurring in months not typically associated with high wildfire danger. Those who study wildfires, including ZestyAI, have begun to start thinking in wildfire "years" instead of wildfire "seasons'. Strong wildfire years, with 10+ million acres burned, have quickly become the new normal. The last 10 years have been the worst on record for property and casualty (P&C) insurers when it comes to wildfire. 8 of the top 20 fires in California history, and more than half of the acreage burned by them, occurred in just the years 2020 and 2021.

What can insurers do to prepare themselves for persistent wildfires?

• Understand the Data: Instead of sticking with decades-old approaches, assess wildfire risk at the property level.
• Continue to Bring Transparency and Education to Homeowners: Insights from AI-based wildfire risk models may be passed on to homeowners and agents, enabling a much better understanding of wildfire risk.
• Find the Right Technology Partner: Aerial and satellite imagery, machine learning, and infinitely scalable cloud computing resources were combined to build the most granular wildfire risk assessment model (Z-FIRE™). Using Z-FIRE™, ZestyAI can accurately estimate an individual property’s wildfire risk, plus highlight the key property-level factors that contribute to that risk.

Click here to download ZestyAI's 2022 Wildfire Season Overview.

ZestyAI offers insurers and real estate companies access to precise intelligence about every property in North America. The company uses AI, including computer vision, to build a digital twin for every building in North America, encompassing 200B property insights accounting for all details that could impact a property’s value and associated risks, including the potential impact of natural disasters. Visit https://zesty.ai for more information.

A Data-Driven Conversation about the US West’s Megadrought

Current climate conditions in the West reveal that 2021 may have a higher than normal risk for wildfire losses. While much of this report focuses on California, historically the worst victim of wildfire in the US, the entire western US is of concern in 2021. In particular, the expansion of deep drought into Colorado is of major concern.

Drought is a leading factor in seasonal wildfire risk. With drought extending through every western state this spring, insurers should consider looking deeply into how they are addressing this growing peril. According to AON, last year’s wildfires in the US West cost insurers over $8 billion.

We've released a complete detailing the devastating potential for 2021's wildfire season. The full report is available here.

Research across more than 71,000 properties involved in wildfires draws significant links between fuel management and property survival.

Read Full Study 

Oakland,Calif., April 8, 2021: Zesty^AI, a leader in climate risk analytics powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) today released new research on how fuel management impacts destruction rates from wildfires. They found property owners who clear vegetation from the perimeter of their home or building can nearly double their structure's likelihood of surviving a wildfire.

Zesty^AI, in conjunction with, IBHS studied more than 71,000 properties involved in wildfires between 2016 and 2019 to assess the relationship between vegetation, buildings, and property vulnerability. To do this, Zesty^AI leveraged a combination of computer vision and AI to analyze high resolution satellite and aerial imagery of the properties that fell within the wildfire perimeter, which allowed them to determine what effects a property's physical environment had on its likelihood of survival. They found buildings with a high amount of vegetation within 5 feet of the structure were destroyed in a wildfire 78 percent of the time -- a rate nearly twice as high as those with small amounts of perimeter vegetation. This pattern held true as Zesty^AI analyzed the other defensible zones, ranging from 30 to 100 feet around the property.

"It's common sense that increased vegetation increases wildfire risk, but this study shows just how powerful individual action can be in safeguarding structures. Mitigation actions that can cut risk nearly in half are statistically meaningful to anyone with a stake in this peril," said Attila Toth, CEO of Zesty^AI. "These findings also underscore how wildfire research at IBHS and artificial intelligence at Zesty^AI translates to real-world impact at the intersection of homeowners, community leaders, regulators, and insurance carriers. This type of collective action will help protect our communities from the devastating impact of wildfire, which unfortunately has continued to increase over the last decade."

The study also supported and confirmed takeaways from IBHS's Suburban Wildfire Adaptation Roadmaps released last year, which go beyond the home ignition zone to detail additional actions needed across eight aspects of a home to address a home's wildfire vulnerability. Zesty^AI's new research found that having other structures in close proximity to a property increases its wildfire risk, particularly for properties in areas with moderate to high vegetation coverage. Buildings in these areas that had another structure within 30 to 100 feet from the property were destroyed in a wildfire 60 percent of the time, compared to a 31 percent destruction rate for homes without another structure in close proximity.

"This research further demonstrates to homeowners, community leaders, and policy makers just how impactful taking the mitigation actions laid out in the Suburban Wildfire Adaptation Roadmaps can be in protecting homes from wildfire ignition," said Roy E. Wright, President & Chief Executive Officer at IBHS. "Quantifying the effect of mitigating fuel density risk, one of the critical actions identified in the Roadmaps, is a first piece in the larger puzzle of what groups of mitigation actions most improve the chance of home survival and by what level."

Zesty^AI is uniquely equipped to support this type of research because of the proprietary wildfire property loss database it developed for Z-FIRE™, its AI model that generates property-specific predictive risk scores. Z-FIRE™ has been trained on more than 1,200 wildfire events across several decades and accounts for the property-level factors that contribute to wildfire risk, including defensible space, building material, and roof pitch, which legacy models fail to consider.

Wright added, "While it is not possible to eliminate wildfire risk we are not powerless against it. We must take a pragmatic approach to mitigate risk at all levels and ultimately reduce property damage through data and science. Through collaborations with modelling organizations like Zesty^AI, advanced technology like computer vision and AI help us better understand the impact of these actions at a larger scale. It is encouraging to see emerging progress in just the first months of 2021."

For additional insights you can read the full research paper, ‘Wildfire Fuel Management and Risk Mitigation - Where to Start?' here. For more information on Zesty^AI please visit www.zesty.ai, and for more information on IBHS please visit www.ibhs.org.

About Zesty^AI (www.zesty.ai): Increasingly frequent natural disasters, such as wildfires, floods and hurricanes devastated communities and drove $2.2 Trillion in economic losses over the past decade. Zesty^AI uses 200Bn data points, including aerial imagery, and artificial intelligence to assess the impact of climate change one building at a time. Zesty^AI has partnered with leading insurance companies and property owners helping them protect homes, businesses and support thriving communities. Zesty^AI was named Top 100 Most Innovative AI Company in the world by CB Insights in 2020, and Gartner Cool Vendor in Insurance by Gartner Research in 2019. For more information visit: https://www.zesty.ai/

‍

About the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS)

The IBHS mission is to conduct objective, scientific research to identify and promote effective actions that strengthen homes, businesses and communities against natural disasters and other causes of loss. Learn more about IBHS at DisasterSafety.org.

As of September 18th, between $5.9Bn and $9.8Bn in losses have occurred this year alone.

The Zest
Zesty^AI has been keeping a close eye on the wildfires burning in the Western United States. Whether by evacuation or smoke, most of our employees have felt the impact firsthand.
Utilizing our vast wildfire data and artificial intelligence resources, we have estimated that as of September 18th, between $5.9Bn and $9.8Bn in losses have occurred this year alone.

What has made 2020 unique?
Two key aspects have made the 2020 Wildfire Season exceptional: the number of acres burned and the timing of the fires.

2018, which previously held the California record for acres burned at 1,975,086 has been eclipsed with months left in the seasons. More than 3.3 million acres have already been charred by wildfire this year in California alone, and more than 5 million in the Western US.

Fire season tends to start in September and peak in November. In August, a large scale lightning event occurred, triggering many of the California wildfires. Oregon, which typically has a shorter wildfire season has also seen early and widespread wildfires.

Analysis Methodology
Using Zesty^AI’s comprehensive historical wildfire loss data, up-to-date wildfire perimeter locations for the 2020 season, residential and commercial property information, and fueled by Zesty^AI’s AI-driven wildfire damage risk scores, the expected destruction and cost of the 2020 wildfire season so far was calculated for California, Oregon, and Washington.

To estimate the destruction and damages, Zesty^AI identified every structure involved in the 2020 wildfire perimeters and their associated wildfire vulnerabilities. Using the historical relationship between the risk profile of the structure, asset value, and economic loss, Zesty^AI was able to estimate the full economic loss of those events (including non-insured assets such as uninsured property, and non-insured economic cost). Actual information from CalFire on CZU and LNU incident was used to validate the methodology.

From our extensive historical loss data, a relationship between structural damage expected and the cost of wildfire events was developed based on local property and loss information and expanded to include additional considerations such as smoke damage, displacement costs, and construction.

The 5 Most Destructive Fires So Far
Our estimates place the Claremont-Bear (North Complex) at the top of the list of most destructive in terms of number of properties lost. Four of these five wildfires occurred in California with the Alameda Drive fire occurring in Oregon.

The 5 Most Expensive Fires So Far
While the Claremont-Bear (North Complex) fire is estimated to have destroyed the most properties, the CZU Lightning Complex fire is currently estimated to be the most costly at up to $2.6B. That makes it responsible for ~27% of all total economic losses from fires in the 2020 season so far. 

Putting Numbers on Destruction
By Zesty^AI estimates, between $5.9Bn and $9.8Bn of economic losses have occurred in California, Oregon, and Washington so far this year. California, which also leads in acres burned (5M+) makes up the lion’s share at up to $7.9B.

It’s important to state that the fire season is not yet over. In much of the Western US, it could be just beginning. With a number of fires still active and the potential for more to start, these numbers are almost certain to rise between now and the end of the year.

Looking Forward
Multiple estimates place the 2018 wildfire season at around $15Bn in total losses. While exceptional in terms of total acres burned, the 2020 wildfire season has not yet reached that level of economic loss. Without any doubt, this will be one of the costliest years on record, and with months left in the season, the potential exists for this year to surpass 2018 if it continues at its current pace.

Zesty^AI will continue to monitor this fire season. As in years past, new data continues to refine our models and analyses. Insurance professionals and media who would like more information about this analysis or about how artificial intelligence can help insurers protect themselves and their customers from wildfire should contact us.

ZestyAI today announced Z-SPARK™, an AI-powered model that predicts non-weather fire risk at the individual property level.

The model evaluates the factors that influence ignition and fire spread to help insurers identify the structures most likely to generate costly fire losses.

Most insurers still evaluate fire risk using neighborhood or territory level averages and limited historical loss data, even though risk can vary dramatically from one property to the next. Without property-level insight, insurers struggle to price risk accurately, increasing the likelihood of adverse selection and unexpected losses.

In 2023, $25 billion in property losses occurred from non-weather-related fire incidents from sources such as grills, appliances, heaters, and electrical faults.

Z-SPARK applies modern fire science and property-level intelligence to analyze how building materials, maintenance conditions, surrounding structures, local fire response capacity, and climate drive ignition and fire spread. 

The model predicts both the probability of ignition and potential loss severity using advanced machine learning trained and validated on millions of real fire incidents and verified insurance claims.

With these insights, insurers can:

• Price with precision — align premiums with true property-level fire risk rather than broad geographic averages
• Streamline operations — support straight-through processing for low-risk properties
• Prioritize underwriting resources — focus manual review and inspections where risk warrants closer scrutiny
• Expand confidently — write business in challenging markets with a clearer view of actual exposure
• Protect portfolio performance — proactively manage concentration risk before losses accumulate

Z-SPARK delivers 30× greater risk differentiation than traditional territory-based models.

“Non-weather fire is one of the most costly and least understood risks in property insurance,” said Kumar Dhuvur, Founder and Chief Product Officer of ZestyAI.

“Two homes on the same street can have dramatically different fire risk depending on how they were built, maintained, and what surrounds them. Yet most insurers still evaluate that risk using community-level scores. Z-SPARK reveals those hidden differences so insurers can make decisions based on the actual risk at each property.”

ZestyAI’s Z-FIRE wildfire model is widely used by insurers to assess catastrophic wildfire exposure. Z-SPARK extends that expertise to everyday building fires, applying the same property-level intelligence to the most costly source of insurance loss.

Together with models for hail, wind, severe convective storms, and water damage, Z-SPARK expands ZestyAI's suite of AI-powered capabilities across the most costly perils affecting insurance portfolios. Combined with ZORRO Discover — which applies agentic AI to help insurers research markets, prepare filings, and act on risk intelligence faster — the ZestyAI platform gives insurers a comprehensive view of property-level risk and the tools to act on it across underwriting, pricing, and portfolio management.

ZestyAI today announced that American European Insurance Group (AEIG) has selected its suite of regulatory-approved AI models to enhance underwriting, pricing, and exposure management across its multi-state property portfolio.

Through the ZestyAI platform, AEIG has adopted models for non-weather water (Z-WATER™), hail (Z-HAIL™), and wind (Z-WIND™), along with Z-PROPERTY™ to deliver property-level risk insight.

ZestyAI’s models are built, trained, and validated on carrier-contributed loss data and analyze the interaction between property characteristics, environmental conditions, and peril behavior to predict claim frequency and severity at the individual property level. Carriers apply these insights at new business and renewal to sharpen risk selection, improve pricing alignment, and manage portfolio concentration. ZestyAI’s models have secured regulatory approvals that enable transparent and defensible use in underwriting and pricing.

“As we operate across states with varied exposure profiles, we need consistent, property-level insight into what drives losses across wind, hail, and non-weather water,” said Steve Hartman, President and CEO of AEIG.

“ZestyAI gives us the precision to align underwriting and pricing with expected loss performance, support our agent partners with greater transparency, and maintain disciplined growth. Corporate experience alone is no longer sufficient to intelligently compete in a crowded marketplace, and the ability to leverage both traditional and non-traditional data in best-in-class account underwriting and pricing is a requirement for sustained profitability.”

“Regional insurers like AEIG are balancing expansion with the need to stay highly disciplined in how they evaluate property risk,” said Attila Toth, Founder and CEO of ZestyAI.

“By grounding underwriting and pricing decisions in verified, property-level intelligence, AEIG can expand across diverse exposures with confidence while protecting portfolio performance.”

ZestyAI has been named one of the Everest Group’s Top 50™ Property & Casualty (P&C) Insurance Technology Providers for 2026, marking the second consecutive year the company has been recognized for helping shape the future of insurance technology. 

Each year, Everest Group evaluates hundreds of providers across the global insurance technology landscape. The Top 50 ranking highlights providers demonstrating strong market momentum, broad industry impact, and continued investment in advanced technology.

Over the past year, ZestyAI has significantly expanded its platform and product capabilities to help insurers understand and manage property risk with greater precision. This includes the launch of ZORRO, ZestyAI’s agentic AI platform that enables insurers to research markets, analyze regulatory filings, and act on risk intelligence faster.

Everest Group also recognized ZestyAI within the Property and Location Intelligence category—solutions that help insurers evaluate structural, environmental, and catastrophe risk at the individual property level to improve underwriting, pricing accuracy, and operational efficiency.

ZestyAI’s AI-powered models help insurers assess exposure across the most costly perils affecting property portfolios, including wildfire, hail, wind, severe convective storms, and non-weather water damage. Together, these capabilities give insurers a more complete view of risk and the tools to act on it across underwriting, pricing, and portfolio management.

As AI moves from experimentation to enterprise deployment across the insurance industry, ZestyAI continues to invest in technologies that help insurers operate with greater precision, transparency, and confidence.

ZestyAI today announced that Harford Mutual Insurance Group (HMIG) has selected the ZestyAI Platform to enhance property-level exposure insight across its commercial portfolio.

Harford Mutual Insurance is grounding its book in verified, structure-level intelligence — strengthening underwriting discipline and improving visibility into the property characteristics that directly influence loss volatility and portfolio stability.

ZestyAI’s Roof Age delivers verified roof age by cross-validating building permit records with over 20 years of aerial imagery, to detect roof replacement events and assign confidence scores across 97% of U.S. properties. Z-PROPERTY™ further evaluates roof complexity, materials, and condition, and surrounding risk factors that materially impact underwriting outcomes and exposure management.

“With ZestyAI, we have verified property-level intelligence that changes how we evaluate and manage risk,” said Wayne Gearhart, Senior Vice President and COO of Harford Mutual Insurance Group.

“The platform improves our visibility into exposure across the portfolio and supports disciplined, resilient growth in our commercial book.”

“Harford Mutual Insurance has a long history of doing what’s right for its agents and policyholders, and that starts with understanding risk accurately at the property level,” said Attila Toth, Founder and CEO of ZestyAI.

“By grounding decisions in verified property-level intelligence, its team is strengthening underwriting discipline, enhancing portfolio resilience, and setting a strong example for how regional carriers can leverage trusted AI to navigate today’s risk environment.”

ZestyAI works closely with regulators to ensure transparency, validation, and continuous monitoring of its AI-driven models. Its portfolio of risk models has secured more than 200 approvals from regulators nationwide, including in markets served by Harford Mutual Insurance across the Mid-Atlantic and South.

Two insurers operating in hurricane-exposed coastal markets — Southern Oak Insurance Company and Lilypad-Centauri Insurance — are using the ZestyAI platform to bring greater structure-level insight to underwriting and portfolio oversight

As catastrophe volatility intensifies in states like Florida, insurers are increasingly turning to property-level intelligence — including roof condition, parcel characteristics, and structural features — to better understand exposure and manage accumulation risk.

Southern Oak Insurance Company expanded its partnership with ZestyAI following nine months of portfolio impact using Z-PROPERTY™ to analyze structural condition across its Florida homeowners portfolio.

Lilypad-Centauri Insurance adopted Roof Age and Z-PROPERTY™ to improve visibility into roof replacement history, parcel characteristics, and structural exposure across its coastal homeowners and dwelling fire portfolios.

Click here to view the Southern Oak press release.
Click here to view the Lilypad-Centauri press release.

Industry Coverage

Read more from leading publications covering the P&C insurance industry:

PropertyCasualty360 — Who’s Using What in P&C Insurance

Insurance Edge — ZestyAI Wins Over More US Insurers

Insurance Innovation Reporter — Coastal Insurers Adopt ZestyAI Property-Level Intelligence for CAT Risk

Fintech Global — ZestyAI Grows Insurer Partnerships Amid Coastal Volatility

Insurtech Analyst — Coastal Insurers Expand ZestyAI Partnerships for Property Risk

ZestyAI today announced that Horace Mann, the largest national insurer focusing on educators’ financial needs, has selected ZestyAI to support the modernization of its property underwriting operations.

Horace Mann will deploy Z-PROPERTY™, ZestyAI’s property intelligence platform that applies computer vision and machine learning across aerial imagery, building permit records, tax assessment data, and other verified sources to generate insights across more than 70 structural and parcel attributes for 150 million residential and commercial properties nationwide. 

These property-level insights provide clearer visibility into condition and exposure, enabling underwriting teams to better differentiate risk across new business and renewals, streamline workflows, and reduce reliance on traditional inspection-heavy processes.

As part of its underwriting evolution, Horace Mann will leverage ZestyAI’s broader portfolio of property intelligence and peril-specific risk models—including Roof Age, Z-HAIL™, Z-WIND™, Z-STORM™, and Z-WATER™—to evaluate how advanced property intelligence can inform underwriting and rating decisions across weather- and non-weather risks over time.

“This partnership is about rethinking how underwriting decisions are made in a modern property market,” said Vanessa Jackson, SVP, Head of P&C at Horace Mann.

“By bringing scalable, property-level intelligence into our underwriting process, we’re positioning our teams to make faster, more informed decisions today, and to continuously adapt as risk and expectations evolve.”

“Horace Mann is taking a thoughtful, measured approach to underwriting modernization,” said Attila Toth, Founder and CEO of ZestyAI. “By adopting property-level intelligence, they are enhancing underwriting decisions today while building a strong foundation for continued operational improvement.”

"We are proud to support Horace Mann in their mission to provide educators with peace of mind, allowing them to focus on what matters most — shaping the next generation."

ZestyAI supported Horace Mann through a rigorous evaluation process, demonstrating how accurate, complete property-level insight delivered at scale can materially improve enterprise data quality, supporting more reliable underwriting and analytics across the portfolio.