Reports & Research

A Data-Driven Conversation about the US West’s Megadrought

Current climate conditions in the West reveal that 2021 may have a higher than normal risk for wildfire losses. While much of this report focuses on California, historically the worst victim of wildfire in the US, the entire western US is of concern in 2021. In particular, the expansion of deep drought into Colorado is of major concern.

Drought is a leading factor in seasonal wildfire risk. With drought extending through every western state this spring, insurers should consider looking deeply into how they are addressing this growing peril. According to AON, last year’s wildfires in the US West cost insurers over $8 billion.

We've released a complete detailing the devastating potential for 2021's wildfire season. The full report is available here.

Research across more than 71,000 properties involved in wildfires draws significant links between fuel management and property survival.

Read Full Study 

Oakland,Calif., April 8, 2021: Zesty^AI, a leader in climate risk analytics powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) today released new research on how fuel management impacts destruction rates from wildfires. They found property owners who clear vegetation from the perimeter of their home or building can nearly double their structure's likelihood of surviving a wildfire.

Zesty^AI, in conjunction with, IBHS studied more than 71,000 properties involved in wildfires between 2016 and 2019 to assess the relationship between vegetation, buildings, and property vulnerability. To do this, Zesty^AI leveraged a combination of computer vision and AI to analyze high resolution satellite and aerial imagery of the properties that fell within the wildfire perimeter, which allowed them to determine what effects a property's physical environment had on its likelihood of survival. They found buildings with a high amount of vegetation within 5 feet of the structure were destroyed in a wildfire 78 percent of the time -- a rate nearly twice as high as those with small amounts of perimeter vegetation. This pattern held true as Zesty^AI analyzed the other defensible zones, ranging from 30 to 100 feet around the property.

"It's common sense that increased vegetation increases wildfire risk, but this study shows just how powerful individual action can be in safeguarding structures. Mitigation actions that can cut risk nearly in half are statistically meaningful to anyone with a stake in this peril," said Attila Toth, CEO of Zesty^AI. "These findings also underscore how wildfire research at IBHS and artificial intelligence at Zesty^AI translates to real-world impact at the intersection of homeowners, community leaders, regulators, and insurance carriers. This type of collective action will help protect our communities from the devastating impact of wildfire, which unfortunately has continued to increase over the last decade."

The study also supported and confirmed takeaways from IBHS's Suburban Wildfire Adaptation Roadmaps released last year, which go beyond the home ignition zone to detail additional actions needed across eight aspects of a home to address a home's wildfire vulnerability. Zesty^AI's new research found that having other structures in close proximity to a property increases its wildfire risk, particularly for properties in areas with moderate to high vegetation coverage. Buildings in these areas that had another structure within 30 to 100 feet from the property were destroyed in a wildfire 60 percent of the time, compared to a 31 percent destruction rate for homes without another structure in close proximity.

"This research further demonstrates to homeowners, community leaders, and policy makers just how impactful taking the mitigation actions laid out in the Suburban Wildfire Adaptation Roadmaps can be in protecting homes from wildfire ignition," said Roy E. Wright, President & Chief Executive Officer at IBHS. "Quantifying the effect of mitigating fuel density risk, one of the critical actions identified in the Roadmaps, is a first piece in the larger puzzle of what groups of mitigation actions most improve the chance of home survival and by what level."

Zesty^AI is uniquely equipped to support this type of research because of the proprietary wildfire property loss database it developed for Z-FIRE™, its AI model that generates property-specific predictive risk scores. Z-FIRE™ has been trained on more than 1,200 wildfire events across several decades and accounts for the property-level factors that contribute to wildfire risk, including defensible space, building material, and roof pitch, which legacy models fail to consider.

Wright added, "While it is not possible to eliminate wildfire risk we are not powerless against it. We must take a pragmatic approach to mitigate risk at all levels and ultimately reduce property damage through data and science. Through collaborations with modelling organizations like Zesty^AI, advanced technology like computer vision and AI help us better understand the impact of these actions at a larger scale. It is encouraging to see emerging progress in just the first months of 2021."

For additional insights you can read the full research paper, ‘Wildfire Fuel Management and Risk Mitigation - Where to Start?' here. For more information on Zesty^AI please visit www.zesty.ai, and for more information on IBHS please visit www.ibhs.org.

About Zesty^AI (www.zesty.ai): Increasingly frequent natural disasters, such as wildfires, floods and hurricanes devastated communities and drove $2.2 Trillion in economic losses over the past decade. Zesty^AI uses 200Bn data points, including aerial imagery, and artificial intelligence to assess the impact of climate change one building at a time. Zesty^AI has partnered with leading insurance companies and property owners helping them protect homes, businesses and support thriving communities. Zesty^AI was named Top 100 Most Innovative AI Company in the world by CB Insights in 2020, and Gartner Cool Vendor in Insurance by Gartner Research in 2019. For more information visit: https://www.zesty.ai/

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About the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS)

The IBHS mission is to conduct objective, scientific research to identify and promote effective actions that strengthen homes, businesses and communities against natural disasters and other causes of loss. Learn more about IBHS at DisasterSafety.org.

As of September 18th, between $5.9Bn and $9.8Bn in losses have occurred this year alone.

The Zest
Zesty^AI has been keeping a close eye on the wildfires burning in the Western United States. Whether by evacuation or smoke, most of our employees have felt the impact firsthand.
Utilizing our vast wildfire data and artificial intelligence resources, we have estimated that as of September 18th, between $5.9Bn and $9.8Bn in losses have occurred this year alone.

What has made 2020 unique?
Two key aspects have made the 2020 Wildfire Season exceptional: the number of acres burned and the timing of the fires.

2018, which previously held the California record for acres burned at 1,975,086 has been eclipsed with months left in the seasons. More than 3.3 million acres have already been charred by wildfire this year in California alone, and more than 5 million in the Western US.

Fire season tends to start in September and peak in November. In August, a large scale lightning event occurred, triggering many of the California wildfires. Oregon, which typically has a shorter wildfire season has also seen early and widespread wildfires.

Analysis Methodology
Using Zesty^AI’s comprehensive historical wildfire loss data, up-to-date wildfire perimeter locations for the 2020 season, residential and commercial property information, and fueled by Zesty^AI’s AI-driven wildfire damage risk scores, the expected destruction and cost of the 2020 wildfire season so far was calculated for California, Oregon, and Washington.

To estimate the destruction and damages, Zesty^AI identified every structure involved in the 2020 wildfire perimeters and their associated wildfire vulnerabilities. Using the historical relationship between the risk profile of the structure, asset value, and economic loss, Zesty^AI was able to estimate the full economic loss of those events (including non-insured assets such as uninsured property, and non-insured economic cost). Actual information from CalFire on CZU and LNU incident was used to validate the methodology.

From our extensive historical loss data, a relationship between structural damage expected and the cost of wildfire events was developed based on local property and loss information and expanded to include additional considerations such as smoke damage, displacement costs, and construction.

The 5 Most Destructive Fires So Far
Our estimates place the Claremont-Bear (North Complex) at the top of the list of most destructive in terms of number of properties lost. Four of these five wildfires occurred in California with the Alameda Drive fire occurring in Oregon.

The 5 Most Expensive Fires So Far
While the Claremont-Bear (North Complex) fire is estimated to have destroyed the most properties, the CZU Lightning Complex fire is currently estimated to be the most costly at up to $2.6B. That makes it responsible for ~27% of all total economic losses from fires in the 2020 season so far. 

Putting Numbers on Destruction
By Zesty^AI estimates, between $5.9Bn and $9.8Bn of economic losses have occurred in California, Oregon, and Washington so far this year. California, which also leads in acres burned (5M+) makes up the lion’s share at up to $7.9B.

It’s important to state that the fire season is not yet over. In much of the Western US, it could be just beginning. With a number of fires still active and the potential for more to start, these numbers are almost certain to rise between now and the end of the year.

Looking Forward
Multiple estimates place the 2018 wildfire season at around $15Bn in total losses. While exceptional in terms of total acres burned, the 2020 wildfire season has not yet reached that level of economic loss. Without any doubt, this will be one of the costliest years on record, and with months left in the season, the potential exists for this year to surpass 2018 if it continues at its current pace.

Zesty^AI will continue to monitor this fire season. As in years past, new data continues to refine our models and analyses. Insurance professionals and media who would like more information about this analysis or about how artificial intelligence can help insurers protect themselves and their customers from wildfire should contact us.

ZestyAI, the leading provider of AI-driven risk analytics for the property and casualty insurance industry, today announced it has secured a $15 million credit facility from CIBC Innovation Banking.

The facility enhances ZestyAI’s financial flexibility and reinforces its strong balance sheet as the company scales adoption of its climate and property risk models, delivering over 31 million property risk assessments in 2024, more than double the volume from 2023, and on pace to exceed 50 million in 2025.

“We’ve built ZestyAI with long-term discipline and a clear mission: to help insurers navigate changing risks with confidence,” said Attila Toth, Founder and CEO of ZestyAI.

“As demand for trusted, property-level risk insights continues to grow, this capital infusion enables ZestyAI to further invest in supporting this rapid growth and become the industry standard for property risk analytics."

Strengthening ZestyAI’s Position for Rapid Growth

Capital that supports scale, product expansion, and customer demand

“ZestyAI is addressing a critical need in the insurance industry with its AI-powered approach to property and climate risk,” said Sean Thompson, Managing Director, California Market Manager at CIBC Innovation Banking.

“We’re proud to support ZestyAI’s next phase of growth as it continues expanding its platform and deepening its impact across the insurance ecosystem.”

ZestyAI’s footprint has expanded rapidly across the insurance landscape, with growing adoption among admitted carriers, MGAs, the E&S market, FAIR Plans, and public-private partnerships. Over the past year, the company secured 33 new and expanded customer partnerships, including 26 brand-new clients, and launched four new products.

Accelerating Regulatory Momentum Nationwide

This growth has been matched by accelerating regulatory traction. ZestyAI’s AI-driven models for wildfire, severe convective storms, and non-weather water damage have now been approved in over 50 regulatory filings nationwide, with recent approvals in Texas, Colorado, Ohio, Georgia, Connecticut, Michigan, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Oklahoma.

Recently reviewed by the California Department of Insurance (CDI) in the rate application process, Z-FIRE™, ZestyAI’s wildfire model, can continue to be filed for rate segmentation and underwriting without further review under the Pre-Application Required Information Determination (PRID) process, effective January 2, 2025.

Fueling a Mission to Expand Access to Coverage

Built at the intersection of property data, climate science, and AI, ZestyAI’s platform delivers precise, parcel-level risk insights that help insurers strengthen underwriting, price accurately, optimize inspections, and expand coverage, especially in catastrophe-prone regions. In 2024, ZestyAI helped carriers and insurers of last resort extend coverage to over 511,000 properties previously deemed uninsurable, advancing its mission to protect the livelihoods of homeowners, business owners, and their communities.

As Colorado’s HB 1182 introduces new requirements for wildfire risk transparency and mitigation recognition, ZestyAI is helping insurers comply with proven, mitigation-ready solutions.

What HB 1182 Requires from Insurers

Recently signed into law, HB 1182 requires insurers to disclose how wildfire risk models impact rates, account for property- and community-level mitigation efforts, notify policyholders annually of their risk scores and available discounts, and provide a clear appeals process for disputed scores.

The new regulations take effect July 1, 2026, across homeowners and condo policies, including admitted carriers and the FAIR Plan.

Carriers need to move early to ensure their risk models, rating plans, and customer communications meet the law’s requirements. ZestyAI’s explainable AI models are already in use by the Colorado FAIR Plan and leading carriers to assess mitigation and support policyholder communications in Colorado and other wildfire-prone states.

"As regulatory expectations around transparency and customer engagement continue to evolve, HB 1182 sets a clear framework for wildfire risk modeling," said Bryan Rehor, Head of Regulatory Affairs at ZestyAI.

"ZestyAI’s models were built with these principles in mind, offering carriers a proven, low-friction way to meet these requirements while delivering a better experience to policyholders."

How ZestyAI Helps Carriers Meet HB 1182 Requirements

• Built for Transparency: ZestyAI’s explainable AI models allow carriers to clearly communicate how risk scores are generated, what factors are considered, and how mitigation actions influence risk.
• Mitigation-Ready Risk Modeling: Property- and community-level mitigation efforts are integrated into risk assessments, supporting discounts and appropriate pricing.
• Consumer Risk Score Disclosures: ZestyAI enables carriers to generate individual risk scores and mitigation factors for annual policyholder notifications.
• Appeals and Score Adjustments: Carriers can update risk scores in real time based on new property information, offering transparency and responsiveness to policyholders.
• Regulatory Alignment: ZestyAI’s wildfire, hail, wind, and severe storm models have been reviewed and approved for use in Colorado, helping carriers meet standards with confidence.
• Multi-State Scalability: Carriers can streamline compliance across Colorado and other regulatory environments using the same ZestyAI platform.

A Clear Path to Compliance in Colorado—and Beyond

ZestyAI maintains strong relationships with state insurance regulators and actively participates in dialogue around evolving requirements.

At the national level, ZestyAI engages with organizations such as the NAIC and leading industry advocacy groups to stay ahead of broader regulatory trends.

Through in-house Rating and Advisory organizations, ZestyAI files its models directly with state departments of insurance, ensuring each solution is rigorously vetted and aligned with jurisdiction-specific standards before reaching the market.

ZestyAI today announced a four-year expansion of its partnership with the California FAIR Plan.

Since 2021, the insurer of last resort has leveraged ZestyAI’s Z-FIRE™ to enhance risk assessment, ensuring that homeowners unable to obtain private insurance still have access to wildfire coverage.

How Z-FIRE Supports Access to Wildfire Coverage

With coverage spanning nearly 100% of U.S. properties, Z-FIRE is already trusted by more than one-third of California’s insurance market to refine underwriting, enhance risk segmentation, and ensure that premiums accurately reflect the true wildfire exposure and vulnerability of each structure.

The model leverages AI-driven analysis of over 2,000 historical wildfires, integrating satellite and aerial imagery, topography, and property-level characteristics to provide precise, property-specific risk assessments.

‍This scientifically validated approach is backed by decades of research, including studies from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS).

“We’re honored to continue supporting the California FAIR Plan in providing reliable insurance coverage in high-risk regions,” said Attila Toth, Founder & CEO of ZestyAI.

“By providing Z-FIRE scores directly to policyholders, the California FAIR Plan has increased transparency around wildfire risk and empowered homeowners to take meaningful mitigation steps—like defensible space measures and fire-resistant building materials—to better protect their homes and communities.”

ZestyAI works closely with regulators to ensure transparency, validation, and continuous monitoring of its AI-driven models.

Regulatory Alignment Across the Western U.S.

The company has secured key regulatory approvals across the U.S., including all Western states for Z-FIRE and broad acceptance of its severe convective storm models from Texas to Colorado, the Midwest, and the Great Plains.

The California Department of Insurance (CDI) has reviewed Z-FIRE as part of recently approved rate filings. Insurers can continue filing to use the model for rate segmentation and underwriting without additional review under the Pre-Application Required Information Determination (PRID) process.

Building on its success in California, ZestyAI has partnered with other insurers of last resort, including the Colorado FAIR Plan, further expanding the adoption of AI-driven risk models to help protect families and communities.

Insurance carriers have long relied on aerial imagery to assess property risk, but not all imagery offers the same level of insight. Oblique imagery—angled aerial photos that show the sides of buildings, not just the rooftops—is gaining traction as an essential tool for property underwriting, inspections, and claims.

ZestyAI is proud to now offer oblique imagery from major imagery providers directly within our platform. That means carriers get access to the most comprehensive, up-to-date, and high-resolution views available, streamlined into a single interface, and always in context with our industry-leading property risk insights.

Why Oblique Imagery Matters

Unlike traditional top-down (orthogonal) imagery, oblique views provide side-angle perspectives that reveal critical features often missed from above. This added dimension helps insurers:

• Spot more risk factors: Identify decks, porches, attached structures, handrails, and overhangs—details that are often invisible from above but meaningful for underwriting and rating.
• Gain a more complete picture: Assess roof geometry and slope, siding condition, and visible maintenance issues without needing an in-person inspection.
• Underwrite with confidence: Reduce uncertainty in borderline or complex risks by giving underwriters a full visual context.
• Support faster claims verification: Pre-loss oblique imagery strengthens documentation, helps reduce disputes, and expedites claim handling.

As Rick Smith, Underwriting Manager at Standard Casualty, explains:

“We can get overhead and oblique shots of those locations. We can accomplish through aerial photography what we do through an on-site inspection at a fraction of the cost, which is really important for us.”

The Problem: Fragmented, Outdated, or Incomplete Views

Many carriers still rely on patchwork imagery or public sources like Google Street View.

The result?

• Coverage gaps: Rural, coastal, or wildfire-prone regions may not be frequently or adequately captured, leaving insurers with limited visibility in high-risk areas.
• Stale or seasonal views: Images can be several years old or captured in winter conditions, where snow, shadows, or vegetation obscure key features. Public tools like Google Street View are often even more outdated, sometimes by five years or more.
• No risk context: Raw imagery alone doesn't tell the full story. Without integrated risk scores or property intelligence, it’s just a picture, not a decision-making tool. 

These challenges lead to slower decisions, higher inspection costs, and greater exposure to unknown risks.

ZestyAI’s Advantage: A Complete, Unified View

ZestyAI removes these roadblocks by offering a seamless, integrated oblique imagery experience, built directly into our property risk platform. Here’s what sets us apart:

• Aggregated imagery from major providers: No more relying on a single source. We deliver the widest available footprint and intelligently surface the best imagery for each property.
• Highest recency and resolution: Our platform automatically displays the most recent, clearest, and most relevant imagery available, so you never miss what matters.
• Contextualized insights: Oblique views are shown alongside our AI-powered risk scores and property features, empowering faster and more informed decisions.
• Workflow-ready: Designed for use across underwriting, inspection triage, and claims support, with full scalability for enterprise teams.

Real Impact for Carriers

Insurers using ZestyAI’s oblique imagery capabilities are already seeing measurable improvements:

• Reduced reliance on field inspections
• More accurate roof and structure classifications
• Faster quote turnaround with fewer touchpoints
• Better risk segmentation and fewer surprises at renewal

Combined with ZestyAI’s property-level risk models for perils like wildfire, severe storms, and water damage, oblique imagery helps carriers make decisions with more confidence and clarity every step of the way.

See What You’ve Been Missing 

Oblique imagery adds a critical dimension to property assessment, and when it’s seamlessly integrated with ZestyAI’s AI-powered insights, the result is faster decisions, better risk selection, and more confident underwriting.

See your risk from every angle. 

Schedule a demo today.

ZestyAI today announced a new partnership with Kin Insurance, a direct-to-consumer, digital home insurance provider committed to serving catastrophe-exposed markets.

As part of its expansion into California, Kin has deployed Z-FIRE, ZestyAI’s wildfire risk model, to accurately assess property-level wildfire exposure and expand access to coverage in high-risk areas.

The model was integrated in just 10 days, enabling Kin to move quickly in meeting the needs of California’s evolving market.

Meeting California’s Growing Need for Property-Level Wildfire Insight

California continues to face a widening insurance gap, driven by more frequent natural disasters and insurer withdrawals.

This partnership supports Kin’s commitment to bringing insurance options back to communities impacted by limited availability of coverage.

Z-FIRE uses machine learning to evaluate each property’s unique characteristics, including defensible space, building materials, topography, vegetation, and more, to predict which properties are most likely to experience a wildfire and which ones will survive.

Why Kin Chose Z-FIRE to Support Responsible Growth

Michael McCright, vice president, pricing and risk management at Kin, said:

“California requires a smarter, more modern approach to home insurance risk management. ZestyAI’s Z-FIRE model brings the level of insight we need to confidently assess risk and offer coverage in areas at risk of wildfire.”

“Kin’s expansion into California is exactly the kind of forward-thinking move our technology was built to support,” said Attila Toth, Founder and CEO of ZestyAI. “Together, we’re helping show that with the right data and tools, insurers can re-enter challenging markets with confidence—and deliver meaningful protection to homeowners who need it most.”

“Equally important, Z-FIRE empowers insurers to recognize and reward mitigation efforts at the property level, encouraging homeowners to take action that reduces risk for themselves and their communities.”

Real-World Performance: Z-FIRE in the Los Angeles Wildfires

Z-FIRE’s performance has been validated through real-world events: Following the recent Los Angeles wildfires, Z-FIRE’s highest-risk ratings closely corresponded with the hardest-hit areas, with 94% and 87% of the areas affected by the Palisades and Eaton fires rated as High Risk by the model.

Among homes located within these perimeters, those flagged as having the highest vulnerability to damage were 50% more likely to be destroyed—highlighting the critical value of property-specific insights, even in dense urban settings.

ZestyAI works closely with regulators to ensure transparency, validation, and continuous monitoring of its AI-driven models.

The company has secured regulatory approvals across all Western states for Z-FIRE, along with broad acceptance of its severe convective storm suite of models in Texas, Colorado, the Midwest, and the Great Plains.

The Michigan Department of Insurance and Financial Services has approved ZestyAI's Severe Convective Storm suite, including the proprietary Z-HAIL™, Z-WIND™, and Z-STORM™ models.

Michigan Faces Rising Losses From Severe Convective Storms

The approval comes as Michigan contends with rising weather-related insurance losses.

According to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), the state has experienced over $5 billion in insured storm damage since 2019, with hail and straight-line winds accounting for the majority of claims. In 2024, a series of intense summer storms alone caused more than $1.2 billion in insured losses.

Why Carriers Need Property-Level Precision

ZestyAI’s AI-driven platform predicts the likelihood and severity of claims from severe convective storms at the individual property level by analyzing the interaction of local climatology with property-specific characteristics. In contrast, most risk assessment models today rely on broader territory or ZIP code-level evaluations, overlooking critical property-level factors. 

Each model is built and validated on extensive real-world claims data and delivers transparent explanations of the key drivers behind every risk score, helping carriers make more accurate underwriting and rating decisions.

How ZestyAI’s Storm Models Improve Risk Assessment

Key capabilities include:

• Z-HAIL: Predicts hail damage risk and claim severity using property-specific attributes like roof complexity, historical losses, and accumulated damage, identifying which homes are most likely to file a claim, even within the same neighborhood. 
• Z-WIND: Combines AI-generated 3D analysis of roof condition, complexity, and potential failure points with local climatology to deliver pivotal insights into property-specific wind vulnerability and severity. 
• Z-STORM: Predicts the frequency and severity of storm damage claims, including hail and wind, examining the interaction between climatology and the unique characteristics of every structure and roof.

What Michigan’s Approval Means for Insurers

“As severe weather becomes more frequent and costly, insurers need tools that keep pace with evolving risks,” said Bryan Rehor, Director of Regulatory Affairs at ZestyAI.

“This approval gives Michigan carriers access to precise, property-level insights that support smarter underwriting and help reduce preventable losses.”

Michigan's approval marks the 17th state to embrace ZestyAI's Severe Convective Storm suite, reflecting increasing regulatory confidence in AI-powered risk models that deliver actionable insights while supporting industry-wide resilience efforts.