Reports & Research

A Data-Driven Conversation about the US West’s Megadrought

Current climate conditions in the West reveal that 2021 may have a higher than normal risk for wildfire losses. While much of this report focuses on California, historically the worst victim of wildfire in the US, the entire western US is of concern in 2021. In particular, the expansion of deep drought into Colorado is of major concern.

Drought is a leading factor in seasonal wildfire risk. With drought extending through every western state this spring, insurers should consider looking deeply into how they are addressing this growing peril. According to AON, last year’s wildfires in the US West cost insurers over $8 billion.

We've released a complete detailing the devastating potential for 2021's wildfire season. The full report is available here.

Research across more than 71,000 properties involved in wildfires draws significant links between fuel management and property survival.

Read Full Study 

Oakland,Calif., April 8, 2021: Zesty^AI, a leader in climate risk analytics powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) today released new research on how fuel management impacts destruction rates from wildfires. They found property owners who clear vegetation from the perimeter of their home or building can nearly double their structure's likelihood of surviving a wildfire.

Zesty^AI, in conjunction with, IBHS studied more than 71,000 properties involved in wildfires between 2016 and 2019 to assess the relationship between vegetation, buildings, and property vulnerability. To do this, Zesty^AI leveraged a combination of computer vision and AI to analyze high resolution satellite and aerial imagery of the properties that fell within the wildfire perimeter, which allowed them to determine what effects a property's physical environment had on its likelihood of survival. They found buildings with a high amount of vegetation within 5 feet of the structure were destroyed in a wildfire 78 percent of the time -- a rate nearly twice as high as those with small amounts of perimeter vegetation. This pattern held true as Zesty^AI analyzed the other defensible zones, ranging from 30 to 100 feet around the property.

"It's common sense that increased vegetation increases wildfire risk, but this study shows just how powerful individual action can be in safeguarding structures. Mitigation actions that can cut risk nearly in half are statistically meaningful to anyone with a stake in this peril," said Attila Toth, CEO of Zesty^AI. "These findings also underscore how wildfire research at IBHS and artificial intelligence at Zesty^AI translates to real-world impact at the intersection of homeowners, community leaders, regulators, and insurance carriers. This type of collective action will help protect our communities from the devastating impact of wildfire, which unfortunately has continued to increase over the last decade."

The study also supported and confirmed takeaways from IBHS's Suburban Wildfire Adaptation Roadmaps released last year, which go beyond the home ignition zone to detail additional actions needed across eight aspects of a home to address a home's wildfire vulnerability. Zesty^AI's new research found that having other structures in close proximity to a property increases its wildfire risk, particularly for properties in areas with moderate to high vegetation coverage. Buildings in these areas that had another structure within 30 to 100 feet from the property were destroyed in a wildfire 60 percent of the time, compared to a 31 percent destruction rate for homes without another structure in close proximity.

"This research further demonstrates to homeowners, community leaders, and policy makers just how impactful taking the mitigation actions laid out in the Suburban Wildfire Adaptation Roadmaps can be in protecting homes from wildfire ignition," said Roy E. Wright, President & Chief Executive Officer at IBHS. "Quantifying the effect of mitigating fuel density risk, one of the critical actions identified in the Roadmaps, is a first piece in the larger puzzle of what groups of mitigation actions most improve the chance of home survival and by what level."

Zesty^AI is uniquely equipped to support this type of research because of the proprietary wildfire property loss database it developed for Z-FIRE™, its AI model that generates property-specific predictive risk scores. Z-FIRE™ has been trained on more than 1,200 wildfire events across several decades and accounts for the property-level factors that contribute to wildfire risk, including defensible space, building material, and roof pitch, which legacy models fail to consider.

Wright added, "While it is not possible to eliminate wildfire risk we are not powerless against it. We must take a pragmatic approach to mitigate risk at all levels and ultimately reduce property damage through data and science. Through collaborations with modelling organizations like Zesty^AI, advanced technology like computer vision and AI help us better understand the impact of these actions at a larger scale. It is encouraging to see emerging progress in just the first months of 2021."

For additional insights you can read the full research paper, ‘Wildfire Fuel Management and Risk Mitigation - Where to Start?' here. For more information on Zesty^AI please visit www.zesty.ai, and for more information on IBHS please visit www.ibhs.org.

About Zesty^AI (www.zesty.ai): Increasingly frequent natural disasters, such as wildfires, floods and hurricanes devastated communities and drove $2.2 Trillion in economic losses over the past decade. Zesty^AI uses 200Bn data points, including aerial imagery, and artificial intelligence to assess the impact of climate change one building at a time. Zesty^AI has partnered with leading insurance companies and property owners helping them protect homes, businesses and support thriving communities. Zesty^AI was named Top 100 Most Innovative AI Company in the world by CB Insights in 2020, and Gartner Cool Vendor in Insurance by Gartner Research in 2019. For more information visit: https://www.zesty.ai/

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About the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS)

The IBHS mission is to conduct objective, scientific research to identify and promote effective actions that strengthen homes, businesses and communities against natural disasters and other causes of loss. Learn more about IBHS at DisasterSafety.org.

As of September 18th, between $5.9Bn and $9.8Bn in losses have occurred this year alone.

The Zest
Zesty^AI has been keeping a close eye on the wildfires burning in the Western United States. Whether by evacuation or smoke, most of our employees have felt the impact firsthand.
Utilizing our vast wildfire data and artificial intelligence resources, we have estimated that as of September 18th, between $5.9Bn and $9.8Bn in losses have occurred this year alone.

What has made 2020 unique?
Two key aspects have made the 2020 Wildfire Season exceptional: the number of acres burned and the timing of the fires.

2018, which previously held the California record for acres burned at 1,975,086 has been eclipsed with months left in the seasons. More than 3.3 million acres have already been charred by wildfire this year in California alone, and more than 5 million in the Western US.

Fire season tends to start in September and peak in November. In August, a large scale lightning event occurred, triggering many of the California wildfires. Oregon, which typically has a shorter wildfire season has also seen early and widespread wildfires.

Analysis Methodology
Using Zesty^AI’s comprehensive historical wildfire loss data, up-to-date wildfire perimeter locations for the 2020 season, residential and commercial property information, and fueled by Zesty^AI’s AI-driven wildfire damage risk scores, the expected destruction and cost of the 2020 wildfire season so far was calculated for California, Oregon, and Washington.

To estimate the destruction and damages, Zesty^AI identified every structure involved in the 2020 wildfire perimeters and their associated wildfire vulnerabilities. Using the historical relationship between the risk profile of the structure, asset value, and economic loss, Zesty^AI was able to estimate the full economic loss of those events (including non-insured assets such as uninsured property, and non-insured economic cost). Actual information from CalFire on CZU and LNU incident was used to validate the methodology.

From our extensive historical loss data, a relationship between structural damage expected and the cost of wildfire events was developed based on local property and loss information and expanded to include additional considerations such as smoke damage, displacement costs, and construction.

The 5 Most Destructive Fires So Far
Our estimates place the Claremont-Bear (North Complex) at the top of the list of most destructive in terms of number of properties lost. Four of these five wildfires occurred in California with the Alameda Drive fire occurring in Oregon.

The 5 Most Expensive Fires So Far
While the Claremont-Bear (North Complex) fire is estimated to have destroyed the most properties, the CZU Lightning Complex fire is currently estimated to be the most costly at up to $2.6B. That makes it responsible for ~27% of all total economic losses from fires in the 2020 season so far. 

Putting Numbers on Destruction
By Zesty^AI estimates, between $5.9Bn and $9.8Bn of economic losses have occurred in California, Oregon, and Washington so far this year. California, which also leads in acres burned (5M+) makes up the lion’s share at up to $7.9B.

It’s important to state that the fire season is not yet over. In much of the Western US, it could be just beginning. With a number of fires still active and the potential for more to start, these numbers are almost certain to rise between now and the end of the year.

Looking Forward
Multiple estimates place the 2018 wildfire season at around $15Bn in total losses. While exceptional in terms of total acres burned, the 2020 wildfire season has not yet reached that level of economic loss. Without any doubt, this will be one of the costliest years on record, and with months left in the season, the potential exists for this year to surpass 2018 if it continues at its current pace.

Zesty^AI will continue to monitor this fire season. As in years past, new data continues to refine our models and analyses. Insurance professionals and media who would like more information about this analysis or about how artificial intelligence can help insurers protect themselves and their customers from wildfire should contact us.

ZestyAI announced today a new partnership with California Casualty, a trusted auto and home insurance provider serving educators, police officers, firefighters, and healthcare workers for over 110 years.

The collaboration will enhance California Casualty’s wildfire underwriting and pricing capabilities while reinforcing its long-term commitment to serving California’s community heroes and supporting the California Department of Insurance’s Sustainable Insurance Strategy (SIS).

Enhancing Accuracy, Supporting Affordability

California Casualty will deploy ZestyAI’s Z-FIRE™ model and Wildfire Mitigation Pre-Fill to better align premiums with property-specific wildfire risk and recognize homeowners’ efforts to mitigate that risk.

These advanced models analyze each property’s vulnerability based on factors such as topography, vegetation, building materials, defensible space, and the characteristics of the built environment.

Unlike traditional models that stop at the wildland-urban interface, Z-FIRE accounts for the dynamics of urban conflagration, where fire spreads rapidly from structure to structure in densely built neighborhoods. Wildfire Mitigation Pre-Fill complements this by automatically surfacing mitigation features at scale, bringing greater accuracy and transparency to underwriting.

Todd Brickel, Senior Vice President, Chief Risk & Product Officer at California Casualty, said:

“As wildfire threats intensify, our responsibility is to ensure that educators, peace officers, firefighters, and healthcare professionals continue to have access to reliable and affordable coverage."

"Partnering with ZestyAI equips us with data-driven insights needed to price risk accurately, reward mitigation, and sustain our role as a long-term solution in California’s insurance market.”

Commitment to California

California Casualty has long stood with California’s community heroes, protecting their homes in both city neighborhoods and wildfire-exposed areas. Even as other insurers have reduced their footprint, California Casualty continues to expand access to coverage in support of Commissioner Ricardo Lara’s Sustainable Insurance Strategy.

Through its investment in advanced wildfire analytics, the company is ensuring that affordability and availability can coexist in California’s evolving insurance landscape.

The strength of Z-FIRE’s analytics was reaffirmed during the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires, when the Palisades and Eaton fires escalated into fast-moving urban conflagrations.

The model’s performance reinforced how advanced analytics can anticipate where fire risk is greatest and help insurers strengthen preparedness and resilience well before events occur.

These insights enable California Casualty to maintain confidence in providing coverage for community heroes throughout California’s most challenging environments.

Attila Toth, CEO of ZestyAI, said:

“We are proud to partner with California Casualty, a company that has served community heroes for more than a century.”

“Our AI-driven models provide the transparency, accuracy, and property-level detail needed for insurers to remain confident in challenging markets, rewarding mitigation efforts and supporting regulatory goals for long-term stability.”

Built and validated on more than 2,000 historical wildfire events and two decades of claims data, Z-FIRE has been widely adopted by insurers across the West and recognized by regulators for use in both underwriting and rating.

ZestyAI, the leading provider of AI-powered property and climate risk analytics, today announced that Universal North America Insurance Company, a property insurer, part of the One Alliance Group of companies, has adopted ZestyAI’s Roof Age solution to bring greater accuracy and confidence to property risk assessment across its portfolio.

Why Accurate Roof Age Data Matters

Roof-related claims are among the costliest in property insurance. Yet insurers have long struggled with inconsistent or incomplete roof age data. ZestyAI’s analysis shows that nearly one in three roofs are at least five years older than recorded in policy data, creating blind spots that drive higher losses and mispriced policies. 

How ZestyAI’s Roof Age Model Works

ZestyAI’s Roof Age solution closes this gap by synthesizing building permit data with two decades of high-resolution aerial imagery, applying advanced machine learning to deliver verified roof age estimates with 97% U.S. coverage.

Strengthening Portfolio Performance

"Accurate roof data is foundational for managing one of the costliest drivers of property insurance losses,” said Miguel Barrales, President of Universal North America Insurance Company. “ZestyAI’s Roof Age solution provides the reliability we need to make more confident risk decisions and strengthen portfolio performance.”

"For years, insurers have had to make critical decisions without reliable roof data, and the cost has been enormous,” said Attila Toth, Founder and CEO of ZestyAI. “Universal North America Insurance Company’s adoption shows what’s possible when carriers embrace trusted, property-level insights to strengthen their portfolios and the market as a whole.”

ZestyAI, the leading provider of AI-powered property and climate risk analytics, today announced that its non-weather water risk model, Z-WATER™, has received approval in Wisconsin for use in underwriting and rating.

Why Non-Weather Water Losses Are Rising

Non-weather water is one of the costliest and fastest-growing perils in homeowners insurance, now ranking as the fourth costliest peril overall, with claim severity up 80% over the past decade—surpassing hurricanes. These losses stem from everyday risks like burst pipes, appliance failures, and plumbing leaks. With average claim costs now exceeding $13,000, their financial impact rivals catastrophe events.

How the Z-WATER Model Works

Z-WATER is built, tested, and validated with real insurer loss data, ensuring accuracy and regulatory credibility. The model uses computer vision to analyze aerial imagery alongside tax assessor data, permit records, climatology science, and infrastructure insights to assess key property-level risk factors. By modeling how these variables interact, Z-WATER predicts both the frequency and severity of non-weather water claims with up to 18x greater accuracy than traditional models.

What This Approval Enables for Insurers

With this approval, insurers in Wisconsin can begin using Z-WATER to:

• Set more accurate, property-specific rates
• Align coverage with actual home vulnerabilities
• Optimize inspections and mitigation strategies, such as the adoption of water sensors
• Reduce cross-subsidization and improve portfolio performance

Regulatory Confidence in Explainable AI

“Non-weather water is one of the most frequent and expensive sources of loss for insurers, and it behaves differently than other perils,” said Bryan Rehor, Director of Regulatory Strategy at ZestyAI.

“Z-WATER captures the property-level features that truly drive risk—such as plumbing systems, home design, and even vegetation patterns, giving insurers a much clearer picture of where losses are likely to occur.

"This approval demonstrates that regulators recognize the value of AI models that are explainable, data-driven, and validated against real claims," he added.

Part of a Growing Nationwide Regulatory Track Record

This approval adds to ZestyAI’s growing regulatory momentum. Across five perils, including wildfire, hail, wind, storm, and now non-weather water, ZestyAI has secured more than 70 approvals coast-to-coast.

In addition to these peril models, ZestyAI’s Z-PROPERTY™ solution has also earned nationwide approvals, giving insurers trusted roof and parcel-level insights with the same regulatory credibility.

Southern Oak Insurance Company, a Florida-based insurer specializing in personal residential property coverage, has adopted ZestyAI’s AI-powered property risk platform to improve visibility into property condition and exposure across its homeowners portfolio.

By analyzing structural and environmental vulnerabilities, such as roof degradation, overhanging vegetation, yard debris, and secondary structures, ZestyAI’s platform equips Southern Oak to take targeted actions that help reduce losses and manage exposure more effectively. These granular, property-level insights also offer a clearer view of changing risk conditions across one of the most challenging insurance markets in the country.

Southern Oak is leveraging two core capabilities within ZestyAI’s Z-PROPERTY solution:

• Digital Roof applies AI to high-resolution aerial imagery to assess roof complexity, materials, and condition, flagging structural vulnerabilities before they become claims. 
• Location Insights evaluates the broader parcel to surface risk factors such as vegetation overhang, yard debris, and secondary structures that can amplify storm losses or drive claim severity.

“ZestyAI stood out for its ability to provide deep, 3D visibility into the condition and complexity of the properties we insure.”

“ZestyAI stood out for its ability to provide deep, 3D visibility into the condition and complexity of the properties we insure,” said Tony Loughman, CEO of Southern Oak Insurance Company. “These insights help us improve our risk decisions and manage exposure more effectively across a high-risk geography, while continuing to deliver value and stability to our policyholders.”

“Southern Oak is taking a proactive, data-driven approach to strengthen portfolio decisions,” said Attila Toth, Founder and CEO of ZestyAI. “In Florida’s uniquely challenging insurance market, resilience depends on seeing risk clearly at the property level—and acting on it.”

ZestyAI today announced a new enhancement to its Severe Convective Storm (SCS) risk suite that enables carriers to adjust model inputs and risk scores based on mitigation efforts. 

The enhancement gives insurers a structured and scalable way to reflect real-world improvements, such as upgrading roof materials, replacing aging roofs, or addressing structural deficiencies, directly within property-level risk assessments.

What the New Capability Enables

Carriers can now instantly update risk scores based on verified property data, enabling three key use cases:

1. Reflecting completed mitigation: Recognize risk-reducing actions like roof upgrades or structural improvements in real time, improving rating accuracy and customer satisfaction.
2. Correcting inaccurate data: If errors are identified, such as incorrect roof material, carriers can transparently correct inputs to ensure fairer, more accurate risk assessments.
3. Simulating future changes: Carriers can model the potential impact of proposed upgrades before they occur, helping agents and homeowners understand the value of mitigation and reinforcing behavior that reduces future losses.

Why It Matters for Carriers and Policyholders

Kumar Dhuvur, Co-Founder and Chief Product Officer of ZestyAI, said:

“Models should be powerful, but also flexible and responsive to real-world improvements.”

“By giving carriers the ability to incorporate mitigation and field data into model outputs, we’re supporting transparent, action-oriented risk management that benefits both insurers and homeowners.”

This mitigation-aware functionality is already in use across ZestyAI’s wildfire products, including Z-FIRE™ and Compliance Pre-Fill, where it supports critical regulatory filings and enables carriers to reflect mitigation actions like defensible space and Class A roofs. Extending this capability to the SCS suite ensures a consistent, carrier-controlled approach to incorporating verified improvements across perils.

Built for Transparency and Human-in-the-Loop Decisioning

This enhancement reflects ZestyAI’s broader commitment to human-in-the-loop AI, where insurers remain in control of key decisions and have visibility into the data behind every score.

By combining transparency with the ability to incorporate verified updates, ZestyAI helps carriers build trust with both regulators and policyholders while ensuring model outputs remain grounded in real-world conditions.

The score adjustment capability is seamlessly integrated into the ZestyAI platform and supports a wide range of use cases, including improving product fit, optimizing inspection workflows, enhancing underwriting decisions, and ensuring rating accuracy.

The Z-HAIL™, Z-WIND™, and Z-STORM™ models are built on real-world claims data and leverage property-specific features such as roof geometry, condition, and vegetation to deliver more accurate risk insights than traditional territory-based models.

ZestyAI’s storm models are approved for use in over 20 states across the Great Plains, Midwest, and U.S. South, regions most impacted by severe convective storms, and are actively used by carriers for rating and underwriting.

ZestyAI today announced an expanded partnership with Steadily, a top-rated insurer for rental properties, to deliver advanced hail and wind risk models that enable more precise underwriting. Building on a successful rollout in 2024, Steadily is broadening its use of ZestyAI’s property-specific insights to better assess storm risk and support growth across high-exposure states.

With operations in all 50 states and $300 million in annualized gross written premium, Steadily is one of the fastest-growing insurers in the U.S.

Steadily first adopted ZestyAI’s Z-HAIL™ and Z-WIND™ models in four high SCS states. With a successful proof of concept, the company is now extending usage to additional states in the coming months.

Datha Santomieri, Co‑Founder & COO of Steadily, said:

“Expanding our use of ZestyAI’s hail and wind models reaffirms our commitment to precision and efficiency in landlord underwriting. These insights help us make informed decisions quickly and manage exposure with greater confidence.”

ZestyAI’s platform predicts the likelihood and severity of storm-related claims by analyzing how localized climatology interacts with individual property characteristics — a sharp contrast to traditional models that rely on ZIP code or territory-level assessments. Each model is built and validated on extensive real-world claims data and delivers transparent explanations of the key factors behind every risk score.

Together, Z-HAIL and Z-WIND help insurers identify storm risk at the parcel level by evaluating roof condition, structural complexity, historical losses, and local storm exposure, enabling the granularity needed to underwrite confidently in volatile regions.

“Steadily is modernizing a critical segment of the market with their customer-centric, tech-forward approach,” said Attila Toth, Founder and CEO of ZestyAI.

“We’re proud to support their growth with AI-driven insights that enable better pricing, smarter underwriting, and more resilient portfolios.”

ZestyAI’s severe convective storm models are currently approved by regulators in 19 states and used by leading insurers across the country.