Reports & Research

Wildfire risk in the United States is no longer confined to the edges of forests or traditionally high-risk zones. New analysis using ZestyAI’s property-level wildfire models shows that millions of homes classified as low or no wildfire risk under federal assessments face elevated wildfire danger when evaluated at the property level.

This analysis was recently featured in Vox, which examined how wildfire behavior is evolving — and why broad, backward-looking risk maps are increasingly misaligned with how fires spread today.

👉 Read the full article on Vox → https://www.vox.com/climate/476932/california-wildfire-los-angeles-risk-ai-housing-climate

Wildfire risk is closer — and more granular — than most maps show

Many homes damaged or destroyed in the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires were still classified as “low risk” under federal wildfire assessments. ZestyAI’s property-level analysis provides a different perspective.

By evaluating individual structures — including vegetation proximity, defensible space, building characteristics, and neighborhood-level fire dynamics — ZestyAI identified more than 3,000 properties worth approximately $2.4 billion in areas impacted by the Palisades and Eaton fires that showed elevated wildfire risk despite being classified as low or no risk under FEMA’s census-level assessments.

Across California, the classification gap is even broader. Approximately 1.2 million properties, representing roughly $940 billion in residential property value, are designated as low or no wildfire risk under federal maps, despite AI-driven property-level models indicating elevated wildfire danger.

Why census-level wildfire maps fall short

Wildfires do not spread evenly across census tracts or counties. Ember-driven ignition, structure-to-structure spread, wind conditions, and localized vegetation patterns create uneven outcomes, where one home survives and the next is destroyed.

Federal wildfire assessments are designed to provide a baseline view of community-level risk. FEMA has noted that its National Risk Index is not intended to serve as a property-specific risk assessment. When risk is evaluated at the individual property level, meaningful differences emerge that aggregated maps are not designed to capture.

What more granular wildfire risk intelligence enables

More detailed wildfire risk data can support:

• Targeted mitigation efforts at the property and neighborhood level
• More informed rebuilding and land-use decisions
• Clearer, more defensible underwriting and portfolio strategies
• Improved dialogue between insurers, regulators, and communities

A shift in how wildfire risk is understood

Wildfire risk is evolving faster than the systems built to measure it. Homes are no longer just adjacent to wildfire hazards; they increasingly influence how fires ignite, spread, and intensify, even in dense urban environments.

Property-level risk intelligence does not remove hard decisions. But without it, those decisions are made using an incomplete picture of where wildfire risk truly exists.

Read the full Vox article here.

In property insurance, roof age is one of the most critical factors in assessing risk. Yet too often, carriers rely on self-reported or agent-supplied data that is incomplete or inaccurate.

ZestyAI’s recent analysis of 500,000+ properties revealed widespread discrepancies in reported roof age. The result? Mispriced policies, unexpected losses, and operational inefficiencies that impact the bottom line.

As climate volatility grows and reinsurance pressure intensifies, overlooking the true condition and age of a home’s largest, most exposed surface is a risk no carrier can afford.

What’s Inside

• Uncover the biggest myths and blind spots in roof age records.
• Understand why traditional data sources, like claims systems and permits, fall short in providing accurate roof age.
• Learn how a multi-source verification strategy, combining aerial imagery, permits, tax records, and AI, offers a blueprint for improvement and 97% national coverage.
• Explore why roof age is a predictor of losses across multiple perils, not just wind and hail.
• Discover the one-two punch of verified roof age and real-time condition insights, delivering a complete view of risk, even for young roofs with hidden problems.
• Align your roof age data with growing regulatory expectations, particularly in states like Florida.

Access the Guide.

New research from ZestyAI reveals that 62% of U.S. homeowners are deferring critical home maintenance, adding up to $317 billion in potential claims exposure for insurers.

These findings come as Severe Convective Storms (SCS) caused an estimated $58 billion in insured losses in 2024, surpassing hurricane-related losses and marking the second-costliest SCS year on record.

Tornadoes, hail, and wind events now account for over 60% of all U.S. catastrophe claims, and research from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) shows that roof damage accounts for up to 90% of residential catastrophe losses.

Key Findings from ZestyAI’s Homeowner Survey

According to ZestyAI’s nationally representative survey, 62% of homeowners have delayed essential repairs due to budget constraints, representing nearly 59 million U.S. homes with unaddressed vulnerabilities. Forty percent said they would rely on an insurance claim to cover major repairs like roof replacement, adding up to an estimated $317 billion in potential exposure for carriers.

Alarmingly, 63% of homeowners who weren’t living in their home at the time of the last roof replacement don’t know how old their roof is, making it even harder to detect aging systems before they fail. Meanwhile, 12% admitted they would delay repairs indefinitely, further increasing their risk of property damage.

Severe Convective Storms: The Growing Catastrophe Risk

This blind spot compounds known risks: prior ZestyAI analysis has identified over 12.6 million U.S. properties at high risk for hail-related roof damage, representing $189.5 billion in potential roof replacement costs.

“Deferred maintenance has long been a known risk factor, but today the stakes are higher than ever,” said Kumar Dhuvur, Co-Founder and Chief Product Officer of ZestyAI. "With claim severity rising and storm losses compounding, insurers need more than hazard maps to navigate this landscape."

"Property-level insights allow carriers to proactively address known vulnerabilities, improve underwriting precision, and work with homeowners to reduce losses before they happen.”

ZestyAI’s findings support a growing push toward data-driven, preventative underwriting strategies, especially as carriers face rising claim severity and pressure to improve combined ratios across storm-prone states.

With insured losses projected to exceed $30 billion, the recent Los Angeles wildfires rank among the costliest in U.S. history—reshaping how insurers think about risk, resilience, and readiness.

Watch the Full Webinar → LA Fires in Focus: What Insurers Need to Know

In this on-demand webinar, experts from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), the Western Fire Chiefs Association, Cal Poly’s WUI Fire Institute, and ZestyAI unpack what really happened—from frontline response to lab-based research and model performance—and share critical strategies insurers can use to prepare for what’s next.

Watch this session if you’re a Product Managers, Underwriters, Actuaries, and Risk & Innovation leaders looking to make informed decisions in an increasingly volatile wildfire landscape.

What You’ll Learn

• Key takeaways from the Los Angeles wildfires
• Research on structure-to-structure fire spread and resilience factors
• How wildfire risk models performed—what we got right (and wrong)
• Practical strategies to reduce exposure and strengthen resilience

Meet the Experts

• Anne Cope, Chief Engineer, IBHS
• Bob Roper, CEO, Western Fire Chiefs Association
• Frank Frievalt, Director, WUI Fire Institute at Cal Poly
• Kumar Duhvur, Co-Founder & CPO, ZestyAI

With insured losses projected to exceed $30 billion, the recent Los Angeles wildfires rank among the costliest in U.S. history—reshaping how insurers think about risk, resilience, and readiness.

Watch the Full Webinar → LA Fires in Focus: What Insurers Need to Know

In this on-demand webinar, experts from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), the Western Fire Chiefs Association, Cal Poly’s WUI Fire Institute, and ZestyAI unpack what really happened—from frontline response to lab-based research and model performance—and share critical strategies insurers can use to prepare for what’s next.

Watch this session if you’re a Product Managers, Underwriters, Actuaries, and Risk & Innovation leaders looking to make informed decisions in an increasingly volatile wildfire landscape.

What You’ll Learn

• Key takeaways from the Los Angeles wildfires
• Research on structure-to-structure fire spread and resilience factors
• How wildfire risk models performed—what we got right (and wrong)
• Practical strategies to reduce exposure and strengthen resilience

Meet the Experts

• Anne Cope, Chief Engineer, IBHS
• Bob Roper, CEO, Western Fire Chiefs Association
• Frank Frievalt, Director, WUI Fire Institute at Cal Poly
• Kumar Duhvur, Co-Founder & CPO, ZestyAI

Wildfire Risk Is Rising Nationwide‍

Wildfire seasons are getting longer, more destructive, and harder to predict—and they’re no longer just a Western U.S. concern. From the Southeast to the Midwest, wildfire risk is emerging in places many insurers haven’t traditionally watched.

What the Latest Data Reveals About Wildfire Exposure

Drawing from the latest national datasets and insights from ZestyAI’s Z-FIRE™ model, this visual guide to wildfire risk in the U.S. shows:

• New wildfire hotspots: Discover where risk is rising fastest.
• Mitigation gaps: Learn how a lack of defensible space is putting thousands of homes in danger across the country.
• Top risk drivers: See how features like overhanging trees and wooden roofs are fueling destruction in high-risk areas.

Download Free Infographic

BONUS: You’ll also get access to our latest online event with IBHS and Western Fire Chiefs Association, The LA Fires in Focus: What Worked, What Didn’t, What’s Next for Insurers.

The Rising Threat of Severe Convective Storms

The past few decades have seen a dramatic rise in the frequency and intensity of severe convective storms, resulting in significant financial repercussions for the insurance industry. In the last year alone, insured losses from severe convective storms reached an astounding $60 billion, marking an average annual growth rate of over 11% over the past twenty years. This alarming trend means a new approach is needed to manage and mitigate the escalating risks associated with severe weather events.

In the last year alone, insured losses from severe convective storms reached an astounding $60B, marking an average annual growth rate of over 11% over the past twenty years.

The traditional methods of risk assessment and management are no longer sufficient to cope with the increasing unpredictability and severity of these weather events. As the risk evolves, so must the solutions. Changing risks call for innovative solutions that leverage advanced technology and data analytics to enhance the accuracy and effectiveness of risk modeling.

A New Approach

ZestyAI’s Z-HAIL and Z-WIND models are specifically designed to address the challenges posed by severe convective storms. In a new retroactive case study, we explore the performance of these models on a carrier’s book of business over the prior five years, highlighting their effectiveness in delivering comprehensive coverage and precise risk segmentation.

Key findings from the case study include:

Comprehensive Coverage with High Accuracy

One of the standout results from the case study is the exceptional hit rate of 99.7% achieved by Z-HAIL and Z-WIND. This shows the models were able to accurately identify and assess the risk of severe convective storms for nearly all the properties in the carrier's portfolio.

Strong Risk Segmentation

The models demonstrated remarkable capability in risk segmentation, with Z-HAIL generating a lift of 62X and Z-WIND achieving a lift of 9.7X. This means that the models were able to effectively differentiate between high-risk and low-risk properties, even within small geographic areas such as a single zip code. Accurate risk segmentation allows insurers to tailor their policies and pricing strategies more precisely, leading to better management of their risk exposure.

Improved Combined Ratio

Implementing Z-HAIL and Z-WIND would significantly enhance a carrier’s combined ratio, calculated to be approximately 4 points in the first year. This improvement can be attributed to the models’ ability to optimize underwriting, rating, and the application of deductibles and Actual Cash Value (ACV) endorsement strategies. By accurately assessing the risk and applying appropriate measures, insurers can reduce their loss ratios and improve overall profitability.

The Need for Innovative Solutions

As severe convective storms continue to pose significant challenges to the insurance industry, adopting innovative solutions like ZestyAI’s severe convective storm models can help insurers better manage this escalating risk.

These models provide comprehensive coverage, accurate risk segmentation, and improved financial performance. By embracing advanced technology and data-driven analytics, insurers can navigate the complexities of severe weather events and safeguard their portfolios against future losses.

To learn more about the detailed findings and benefits

Download the full case study.

As part of our relentless focus on helping property and casualty insurers make smart risk decisions, every month I travel across the country to meet with insurance executives. One of the first questions I am asked is what sets ZestyAI apart from our competitors. I love being asked this question because it allows me the opportunity to share our passion for building an impactful company amidst the rapid technological transformation of the more than 650-year-old Property & Casualty (P&C) industry.

In my previous blog post, we delved into the origins of ZestyAI.

Now, let's explore what makes us stand out.

1. We Are a Risk Analytics Platform. Not an Aerial Imagery Data Company.

A Distinct Information Advantage

At ZestyAI, our primary focus is delivering comprehensive insights on climate and property risk for every residential and commercial property in the US. We are not just a data vendor; we are a risk analytics platform.

Our models create a distinct information advantage through their ability to split risk "intra-territory," which can not only help avoid risky policies, but more importantly price to risk allowing companies to grow with quality risk. This provides our clients with actionable insights that go beyond mere data points. Think about ZestyAI products as the FICO score for property and casualty insurance. Just as the FICO score, a measure of consumer credit risk, has become a fixture of consumer lending in the United States, ZestyAI’s peril models aim to simplify climate and property risk assessment for insurance carriers and mortgage lenders.

We are not just a data vendor; we are a risk analytics platform.

Our team of data scientists, deep learning and machine learning experts, and climate scientists are constantly refining and expanding our capabilities. This dynamic approach ensures that we stay at the forefront of technological advancements and deliver unparalleled value to our clients. 

ZestyAI's Focus on Results

ZestyAI’s emphasis on data and artificial intelligence is not an end but a means to achieve the ultimate goal: improving risk management and pricing strategies for insurers. By focusing on the end results—better risk assessment and pricing—we ensure that our innovations translate into real-world benefits for our customers.

The powerful platform we have built provides, at an individual property level, a holistic view of the multitude of peril-specific risks that insurers face. This includes property intelligence for essential parcel, structure, and roof insights; climate models covering wildfire, wind, hail, and storms; and our most recent addition Z-WATER, tackling the challenge of interior water damage. This allows insurers to move from territory-based segmentation to a property-by-property risk assessment. In total, the ZestyAI platform covers over 85% of all peril-driven losses.  

2. Built by Data Junkies for Data Junkies

The Depth and Breadth of Our Data Is Unmatched

While high-resolution imagery is an important component of our models, it is by no means the only input. ZestyAI stands out by integrating 200 billion data points across more than a dozen unique data sources that are new to the P&C industry to maximize risk differentiation. We extract insights from non-imagery data, such as building permits, property sales databases, tax assessment data, and localized weather stations, among others. This comprehensive approach allows us to create a unified and federated database for every property. 

Unique Approach to Data

Our approach to imagery is also unique. ZestyAI products leverage satellite, aerial, and terrestrial imagery to create AI-generated 3D analysis of every structure. As for aerial imagery, we have been partnering with all leading providers and as such we have been training our models on multiple image sources for almost a decade. Having integrated with all major providers rather than relying on a single vendor also allows us to achieve a nearly 100% hit rate. This flexibility ensures that we have the most up-to-date and accurate data available, enhancing the precision of our models. 

As for aerial imagery, we have been partnering with all leading providers and as such we have been training our models on multiple image sources for almost a decade.

By combining these diverse data sources and applying proven artificial intelligence to identify risk, such as roof quality, lot debris, and driveway condition, we provide insurers with a holistic view of property risks. This enables them to make more informed decisions for underwriting, rating, and portfolio management. This multi-faceted data integration is a key differentiator that sets ZestyAI apart from other data vendors in the industry.

3. We Live and Die by ROI and We Know How to Deliver It.

Industry Expertise and Customer Success

One of our strongest assets is our deep understanding of the insurance business and the key value drivers for carriers. We have built a team that includes former executives from leading carriers like Farmers, MetLife, and Progressive, and data analytics providers like CoreLogic, RMS and Guidewire, who bring invaluable industry expertise to our company. 

“We have walked a mile in your shoes” is a phrase we often use when partnering with our customers. Because of this, we don't just throw data over the fence. Rather, we align our models and risk scores to key use cases, ensuring that they are relevant and actionable for our clients. Through our customer success program, we operationalize what each customer needs. We engage closely with our partners, working side-by-side to implement our models and monitor value capture. ZestyAI’s commitment to delivering 10X ROI is a cornerstone of our philosophy and sets us apart from those with a more transactional approach. 

ZestyAI’s commitment to delivering 10X ROI is a cornerstone of our philosophy

Engagement with Regulators

Our deep engagement with regulators further underscores the company’s commitment to delivering value in the context of a highly regulated business. Despite initial skepticism from industry experts about the feasibility of getting an AI model approved, ZestyAI became the first to gain approval as part of a carrier rate filing from the California Department of Insurance (CDI). 

Since then, our model has been adopted for rating in all wildfire-prone markets across the US, providing our clients with the confidence that our solutions are innovative, effective, and compliant. Similarly, our severe convective storm suite of models, including Z-HAIL, Z-WIND, and Z-STORM, have been filed, reviewed, and approved by regulators in multiple states across the country, including Texas, Colorado, and Illinois.  

Protecting What Matters Most

At ZestyAI, our mission goes beyond just providing cutting-edge risk analytics—we are dedicated to protecting communities and livelihoods from the perils they face. By focusing on risk analytics, leveraging unique data sources, and drawing on deep industry expertise, we empower insurers to make smarter, more precise decisions that ultimately contribute to safer, more resilient communities.

Commitment to Transparency and Compliance

Our transparent approach, coupled with deep industry expertise, allows us to deliver unparalleled insights into property risk. We work closely with insurers to understand the factors driving risk at each property, enabling them to partner with homeowners to mitigate potential losses. Our commitment to transparency extends beyond our product. We maintain open communication with regulators to ensure our models align with evolving regulations. This rigorous approach guarantees that our solutions are not only innovative but also practical and effective in addressing real-world challenges.

Vision for the Future

As we continue to push the boundaries of what’s possible in risk management, our vision remains clear: to harness the power of data and AI to help our clients safeguard the future. Together, we are setting new standards in the P&C industry—standards that prioritize resilience, innovation, and above all, the well-being of the communities we serve.

Our vision remains clear: to harness the power of data and AI to help our clients safeguard the future.

Ah, and there is one more differentiator, probably the one that I am most proud of: at ZestyAI we don’t hire B-players or jerks. You will know what I mean once you meet our Zesties.

In our next post, I will explore how ZestyAI's relentless focus on value creation is driving a 10X ROI for our customers and making a meaningful difference in the world.

Are rising storm costs and inaccurate roof assessments impacting your bottom line?

Now available to stream, The Science of Roof Risk master class will equip you with the latest strategies and techniques to master roof risk assessment.

• Enhance your roof risk assessment by 60X
• Improve your combined ratio
• Reduce storm-related roof claims
• Strengthen new business selection

What we cover:

Your presenters, Ross Martin (VP, Risk Analytics) and Sam Fetchero (Head of Marketing) will share with you:

• The Problem of the Roof:  Uncover the underlying factors driving rising storm losses and why traditional risk assessment methods fall short.
• The Science Behind Predicting Losses: Explore key factors impacting  roof risk and loss prediction, including roof age, condition, complexity, and peril-specific models.
• Accuracy-focused Risk Models: Discover advanced modeling techniques that enhance predictive accuracy.
• Understanding Storm Climatology: Learn how storm climatology impacts roof risk and how to integrate these insights into your risk assessment strategies.
• Real-World Results: Witness a comparative analysis of these predictive factors using actual carrier data. Understand the strengths and weaknesses of each approach.
• Priorities of Leading P&C Insurers: 
  See what your peers asked with valuable insights to take back to your team.

Who Should Watch?

This video is ideal for Executives, Product Managers, Actuaries, Underwriters, and CAT Modelers committed to enhancing their roof risk assessment capabilities. 

Bonus Guide

As a bonus for watching, you'll receive a downloadable study on the latest roof risk assessment strategies: Preparing for the Storm: The Insurers Guide to Roof Risk.

Access Now

From Costly Water Losses to Millions in Savings

Non-weather water claims are a leading cause of property insurance losses, costing insurers over $20 billion annually. 

Join us for a FREE live webinar where our experts will discuss the latest trends, challenges, and insights to help you mitigate non-weather water risk.

What We'll Cover

Our experts Rob Silva, ACAS (Director of Customer Success) & Sam Fetchero (Head of Marketing) will present:

• Current Trends: Understand the rise in severity and total loss costs of non-weather water claims.
• Risk Assessment Challenges: Learn why traditional methods fall short in assessing non-weather water vulnerability.
• Key Risk Factors: Identify the main drivers of non-weather water damage.
• Strategic Insights: Discover strategies to improve your management of non-weather water claims.
• Z-WATER in Action: Experience our new AI-powered model that predicts non-weather water risk with unparalleled accuracy.
• Interactive Q&A: Get your questions answered by our experts.

Who Should Attend

This webinar is ideal for Executives, Product Managers, Actuaries, Underwriters, and CAT Modelers committed to enhancing their understanding and management of non-weather water risks. 

Bonus Content

As a bonus, you'll receive our exclusive infographic, "Below the Surface: Research Reveals Knowledge Gap in Homeowner Water Loss Prevention and Coverage."

This research gives key insights into water loss experiences, coverage details, homeowner protection measures, and information on water shutoff devices and heater conditions.

Register Now