A staggering $2.15 trillion worth of U.S. residential property is at high risk of wildfire damage, according to a new AI-powered analysis from ZestyAI, the leader in climate and property risk analytics. The study, which assessed 126 million properties nationwide, found that 4.3 million individual homes face heightened wildfire risk—far beyond traditionally recognized high-risk areas.
Using advanced AI models trained on over 2,000 historical wildfires, ZestyAI mapped wildfire exposure at the property level, integrating satellite and aerial imagery, topography, and structure-specific characteristics. While California leads the nation with $1.16 trillion in wildfire-exposed property, other states such as Colorado ($190.5 billion), Utah ($100.3 billion), and North Carolina ($71.2 billion) also face significant risk.
Wildfire Risk is a Nationwide Challenge
While the Western U.S. has historically seen the most severe wildfire activity, ZestyAI’s findings confirm that high-risk properties exist across the country. States like North Carolina (4.6% of homes at high risk), Kentucky (2.9%), Tennessee (2.3%), and even South Dakota (11.0%) are now seeing increased wildfire exposure.
As more homes and businesses are built in fire-prone landscapes, the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) continues to expand. This, combined with intensifying climate conditions, is driving higher insurance costs and growing availability concerns. Today, one in eight U.S. homeowners already lacks adequate insurance coverage, and that number is expected to rise.
AI Expands Insurance Access in High-Risk Areas
Attila Toth, Founder and CEO of ZestyAI said:
"Wildfires are threatening more properties than ever before, with billions of dollars in exposure even in areas many people don’t associate with fire risk. Yet, too many homeowners are finding themselves uninsured or underinsured just as these disasters become more frequent and severe. Insurers have traditionally relied on broad, regional models that don’t account for individual property characteristics."
"That means some homeowners are denied coverage even when their true risk is much lower than their neighbors'.’"
AI-driven risk analytics are reshaping the way insurers assess wildfire exposure. By providing granular, property-specific insights, we’re helping insurers make smarter underwriting decisions—keeping coverage available in high-risk areas while ensuring that homeowners who take mitigation steps are recognized.
Last year, our models helped insurers extend coverage to 511,000 properties that had previously struggled to secure insurance due to outdated risk models. In 2025, we expect that number to reach a million, ensuring that even in high-risk areas, responsible homeowners have access to protection when disaster strikes.